阿尔巴尼亚：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withAlbania, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration ona lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onNovember 14, 2025, with the officials ofAlbaniaon economic developments andpolicies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staffreport was completed onDecember 8, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith Albania FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Albania enjoys one of the highest growth rates in Europe, low inflation, declining publicdebt, and strong foreign reserves. Building on this foundation, the Albanian government isadvancing bold reforms to secure EU membership by 2030. •Growth is projected to remain robust at 3.5percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 26, whilerisks to the outlook have shifted to the downside amid a more unsettled externalenvironment. •Timely domestic reforms are essential to safeguarding macroeconomic stability andclosing reform gaps with the EU. Key to this will be preserving fiscal buffers throughsustained revenue mobilization, maintaining price and financial stability through agilemonetary policy and further refinement of prudential tools, and advancing comprehensivereforms in human capital, labor markets, and governance. Washington, DC – December 23, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation1with Albania and considered and endorsedthe staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.2The authorities haveconsented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.3 Albania’s tourism-led growth and macroeconomic prospects are expected to remain robust.After averaging 4.3 percent in the post-pandemic period, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.5percent in 2025, primarily driven by private consumption, and 3.6 percent in 2026 reflecting amodest acceleration in growth in key euro area trading partners. Direct effects from U.S. tariffsare minimal, while indirect effects from global trade measures and uncertainty also appearlimited so far. Despite some moderation, tourism continues to provide steady support toeconomic output. Headline inflation is projected to gradually increase from 2.2 percent in 2025to the 3 percent target in the second half of 2026, amid a tight labor market and rising wages.The current account deficit is projected at 2.8 percent of GDP in 2025 and to gradually widen to about 3.5 percent of GDP over the medium term as rising disposable income and publiccapital expenditure boost imports. Risks to the outlook have shifted to the downside amid a more unsettled external environment.Geopolitical tensions, escalating trade measures, commodity price volatility, and prolongeduncertainty could affect Albania’s key trading partners and weaken external demand. Globalfinancial market volatility and asset price corrections could reduce demand for Albaniansovereign debt and may lead to rollover risks. Domestically, a sharper-than-anticipated declinein the working age population could exacerbate labor shortages, fuel inflation, necessitate atighter monetary policy stance, and dampen growth prospects. On the upside, the sustainedimplementation of the EU reform agenda could boost productivity and growth. Executive Board Assessment In concluding the 2025 Article IV Consultation with Albania, Executive Directors endorsedstaff’s appraisal as follows: Albania stands out as one of fastest growing economies in Europe, thanks to a broadlyappropriate macroeconomic policy mix. Output is now well above its pre-pandemic trendthanks to a booming tourism sector. Fiscal discipline has led to a significant reduction in publicdebt while proactive monetary policy has helped bring headline inflation below target. At thesame time, external imbalances have shrunk considerably amid strong foreign reserves,contributing to an external position that is assessed as stronger than implied by fundamentals.In this context, the government is advancing bold reforms to secure EU membership by