阿尔巴尼亚：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT December 2025 Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation with •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration ona lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onNovember 14, 2025, with the officials ofAlbaniaon economic developments and •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith Albania FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Albania enjoys one of the highest growth rates in Europe, low inflation, declining publicdebt, and strong foreign reserves. Building on this foundation, the Albanian government is •Growth is projected to remain robust at 3.5percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 26, whilerisks to the outlook have shifted to the downside amid a more unsettled external •Timely domestic reforms are essential to safeguarding macroeconomic stability andclosing reform gaps with the EU. Key to this will be preserving fiscal buffers throughsustained revenue mobilization, maintaining price and financial stability through agile Washington, DC – December 23, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation1with Albania and considered and endorsed Albania’s tourism-led growth and macroeconomic prospects are expected to remain robust.After averaging 4.3 percent in the post-pandemic period, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.5percent in 2025, primarily driven by private consumption, and 3.6 percent in 2026 reflecting amodest acceleration in growth in key euro area trading partners. Direct effects from U.S. tariffsare minimal, while indirect effects from global trade measures and uncertainty also appearlimited so far. Despite some moderation, tourism continues to provide steady support to to about 3.5 percent of GDP over the medium term as rising disposable income and publiccapital expenditure boost imports. Risks to the outlook have shifted to the downside amid a more unsettled external environment.Geopolitical tensions, escalating trade measures, commodity price volatility, and prolongeduncertainty could affect Albania’s key trading partners and weaken external demand. Globalfinancial market volatility and asset price corrections could reduce demand for Albaniansovereign debt and may lead to rollover risks. Domestically, a sharper-than-anticipated decline Executive Board Assessment In concluding the 2025 Article IV Consultation with Albania, Executive Directors endorsed Albania stands out as one of fastest growing economies in Europe, thanks to a broadlyappropriate macroeconomic policy mix. Output is now well above its pre-pandemic trendthanks to a booming tourism sector. Fiscal discipline has led to a significant reduction in publicdebt while proactive monetary policy has helped bring headline inflation below target. At thesame time, external imbalances have shrunk considerably amid strong foreign reserves, While the near-term outlook is positive, Albania’s goal of income convergence to the EU willrequire overcoming structural reform gaps. Productivity remains subdued, with income percapita at just a third of the EU level, and reform gaps in human capital, governance andbusiness regulation are wide. These medium-term challenges are compounded by a more Rising spending pressures—if not addressed now—could threaten fiscal sustainability. WhileAlbania is projected to maintain non-negative primary balances in 2025-30, with public debtfalling below 50 percent of GDP, the country faces fiscal challenges from demographic shifts,defense obligations and climate-related spending, particularly beyond 2030. To safeguardfiscal buffers, staff recommends growth friendly revenue reforms—streamlining taxexpenditures, modernizing property tax systems, and enhancing tax administration—alongside The BoA should stand ready to quickly respond to evolving market conditions, while FXpurchases should be limited to addressing non-fundamental fluctuations. With inflationexpectations and core inflation close to target, the current policy rate of 2.5 percent andmonetary policy stance close to neutral is appropriate. However, the BoA should swiftly adjust of the central bank subsidized credit line can be better achieved through targeted fiscal Vulnerab