哈萨克斯坦共和国：加强哈萨克斯坦国家银行的货币分析和预测能力

REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN Enhancing Monetary Analysis and ForecastingCapacity of the National Bank of Kazakhstan December2025 Prepared ByMartin Fukac (CCAMTAC), Zsolt Kondrat (Consultant) Authoring Department(s):Caucasus, Central Asia and Mongolia RegionalCapacity Development Center (CCAMTAC),Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) High-LevelSummary Technical Assistance ReportCaucasus, Central Asia and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC)Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) Enhancing MonetaryAnalysis and ForecastingCapacityof the National Bank of KazakhstanPrepared by Martin Fukac and Zsolt Kondrat TheHigh-LevelSummary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries of theassistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives,findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT:In August 2024, the IMF's CCAMTAC conducted a scoping mission at the request of theNational Bank of Kazakhstan to enhance the forecasting capabilities of the Monetary Analysis Division.The mission evaluated the Division's current resources, tools, and data management practices, identifyingstrengths such as experienced senior staff and adequate IT resources, while noting areas forimprovement, including the need for additional training and more consistent forecasting methods. Theproject aims to develop a robust near-term forecasting system, integrating it into the National Bank'sbroader policy analysis framework, with execution planned for FY2026. Key risks include staff turnoverand resource constraints, with mitigation strategies proposed to ensure success. The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Background In response to the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s request for technical assistance (TA) in strengtheningthe toolkit and staff capabilities in “Forecasting of Monetary and Financial Indicators,” the Caucasus,Central Asia and Mongolia Technical Assistance Center (CCAMTAC) of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) conducted a scoping mission in August 2024. The mission aimed to evaluate the current analyticaland forecasting functions within the Monetary Analysis Division (MAD) of the National Bank ofKazakhstan (NBK), and to propose a workplan to further enhance the functions. Summary of Findings ▪Existing Human Resources:MAD has sufficient staff to execute the project, though some staff lacknecessary skills and will require additional training. Senior staff have rich experience and can supportjunior staff development. ▪IT Resources:The MAD has all the relevant IT resources needed to fulfill its tasks properly. ▪Existing Forecasting Tools:The MAD primarily relies on basic time series methods for forecastingmonetary and financial variables. The horizon of the forecasts is short-term, extending up to 12months. The forecasts lack consistency and an anchor in the trends implied (or assumed)in the NBK’scentral medium-term economic projections. ▪Data Availability:The MAD maintains databases on the domestic money, currency, credit, depositmarkets, government securities market, monetary policy indicators, and indicators of world currencymarkets. Data is available in sufficient granularity, time length, and consistency for the project needs. ▪Risks to the Project:The main risks to project execution and sustaining the project’s outcomesinclude staff turnover, resource constraints, and difficulties in institutionalizing the new tools. Mitigationmeasures such as robust training programs, succession planning, and strong management support aresuggested to ensure the project’s success. Summary of Recommendations The project will helptodevelop a robust near-term forecasting system that will enhance the MAD’s abilityto forecast and evaluate credit market conditions and their alignment with the NBK’s Board policy goals.The project will include phases for system development, testing, validation, and capacity building throughhands-on training and real-time feedback. In the final phase, the near-term forecasting system will beintegrated as part of the NBK’s broader forecasting and policy analysis system, and the staff medium-term macroeconomic outlook. Next Steps The project has been approved by theauthorities and IMF for execution inFY2026.