在关税贸易颠覆市场之际，铜价首次触及12,000 美元

在关税贸易颠覆市场之际，铜价⾸次触及12,000美元 By Mark Burton作者：Mark BurtonDecember 23, 2025 at 6:49 PM GMT+8 Translate翻译 Copper hit a fresh all-time high above $12,000 a ton as severe mine outages and trade dislocations linked toUS President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda put the crucial industrial metal on course for its biggest annualgain since 2009. 受严重矿⼭停产以及与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普关税议程相关的贸易错位影响，铜价创下每吨逾12,000美元的历史新⾼，这种关键⼯业⾦属正朝着⾃2009年以来最⼤年度涨幅迈进。 Prices rose as much as 0.9% to $12,031.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, extending a rally that haslifted prices by about 37% this year. The possibility that Trump will place tariffs on the metal has been a centrafactor driving prices higher, with a surge in US imports through the year thrusting manufacturers elsewhereinto a bidding war to keep hold of supplies.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 伦敦⾦属交易所铜价⼀度上涨0.9%，⾄每吨12,031.50美元，延续了今年以来约37%的涨势。特朗普可能对铜征收关税的前景⼀直是推动价格⾛⾼的核⼼因素，今年美国进⼜量激增，迫使其他地区的制造商为了保住供应⽽陷⼊竞价战。 The impact on global trade flows has been so extreme that prices have rallied even though underlying usagehas deteriorated rapidly in China, which consumes about half the world’s copper. Investors often view copperas a barometer for global industrial activity, but the slowdown in China has done little to put the brakes on therally. There’s a growing expectation that prices will keep ratcheting higher as traders ship even greater volumesof copper to the US to front-run potential tariffs. 对全球贸易流向的冲击如此剧烈，以⾄于即便中国这⼀约消耗全球⼀半铜产量的国家，其实际需求迅速恶化，价格仍持续上涨。投资者常将铜视为全球⼯业活动的晴⾬表，但中国经济放缓⼏乎未能遏制这轮升势。市场愈发预期，随着交易商为抢在潜在关税之前向美国运送更多铜，价格还将继续步步⾛⾼。 Explainer: How a Copper Crunch Is Looming Just as AI Boom Hits 解读：在⼈⼯智能热潮来袭之际，铜供应紧张正在逼近 There have been severe disruptions on the supply side too, with outages at mines across the Americas, Africaand Asia prompting warnings that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit that will add further fuel to therally. Deutsche Bank warns that output from the world’s largest miners will drop 3% this year, and could fallagain in 2026. 供应端同样出现了严重⼲扰，美洲、⾮洲和亚洲多地矿⼭停产，促使市场警告称正站在重⼤供应缺⼜的门槛上，这将为本轮涨势再添⼀把⽕。德意志银⾏警告称，全球最⼤矿商的产量今年将下降3%，并且在2026年可能再次下滑。 Analyst at the bank said in a note that “2025 has been a heavily disrupted year, with several large minesexperiencing significant operational challenges,” adding that “overall, we see the market in a clear deficit.” 该⾏分析师在⼀份报告中表⽰：“2025年是⼀个受到严重⼲扰的年份，多座⼤型矿⼭遭遇了显著的运营挑战。”他补充称：“总体来看，我们认为市场正处于明显的供不应求状态。” Surge in US Copper Imports Tightens Global Supplies微信公众号 404K 美国铜进⼝激增收紧全球供应 Source: IHS Markit来源：IHS Markit Supply risks have loomed large in the copper industry for years, and feature prominently in bullish forecastsfrom banks and investors, alongside a projected surge in usage in fast-growing sectors including electricvehicles, renewables and artificial intelligence. Citigroup has advised clients that prices could hit $15,000 in abull-case scenario where a weakening dollar and US interest-rate cuts further boost copper’s appeal,prompting investors to more aggressively pile in. 多年来，供应风险⼀直是铜⾏业⾯临的巨⼤隐忧，也是银⾏和投资者看涨预测中的重要因素，同时还叠加了电动汽车、可再⽣能源和⼈⼯智能等快速增长领域⽤量激增的预期。花旗集团曾建议客户称，在⽜市情景下，如果美元⾛弱以及美国降息进⼀步提升铜的吸引⼒，促使投资者更加积极地涌⼊，价格可能达到15,000美元。 Banks and traders made similarly bold predictions as copper prices surged in the early stages of the pandemic,but that rally eventually faltered below $11,000 amid stiff resistance from buyers in China. The rally hasattracted doubters this time around too, with Goldman Sachs analysts cautioning that surging prices so farhave been driven by investor bets on future market tightness rather than today’s supply-and-demandconditions. 在疫情初期铜价飙升时，银⾏和交易员也曾做出类似⼤胆的预测，但那轮涨势最终在中国买家强烈抵制下⽌步于11,000美元以下。本轮上涨同样吸引了质疑者，⾼盛分析师警告称，迄今为⽌的价格飙升主要由投资者对未来市场趋紧的押注所驱动，⽽⾮当前的供需状况。 Even so, copper remains its top pick in industrial metal markets, and the firm in mid Decemberupgradedits price forecast for next year to $11,400 a ton.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 尽管如此，铜仍是其在⼯业⾦属市场中的⾸选标的，该公司于12⽉中旬将明年的价格预测上调⾄每吨11,400美元。