宏观观察2025：资本支出之年

2025: The year of capex Markets watch to see if this year's capex surge will amount to Jennifer Cardilli +1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.com The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications for Jill Nentwig* + 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.com Note: This will be our last Macro Wrap for the year. If you have some reading time over theholiday period, explore our Macro, Equity and Credit 2026 outlook pages to read about what Sharon Mutiti And check out the latest Barclays Brief podcast where we explore the Credit market outlook in +44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK PatrickCoffey* As we enter 2026,AIis reshaping the global economy, driving trillions in investment, andtransforming industries. Alongside this, easier financial conditions are fuelling growth andopportunity, setting the stage for dynamic change. We highlight stocks set to i) benefit fromhigher-than-expected AI spending, ii) benefit from easing financial conditions, and iii) we flag +44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK OctoberUSretail sales were reassuring – coupled with good news about income in thisweek’s payroll report; consumer spending seems to be in solid shape in Q4. We maintain ourview that the FOMC will deliver two 25bp cuts in 2026. November CPI surprised to thedownside but concerns lingered about data quality. We nudge up our end-2026 forecast for We thinkEuropewill need to invest to accelerate AI adoption and defend borders, but fallshort in transforming governance and institutions, and that growth will pick up, inflation willundershoot 2% and the ECB will remain on hold. Shorter-term, inflation is showing easing dynamics while PMIs indicate that economic activity should close the year on a firmer HeadlineUKCPI inflation in November slowed to 3.2% - we revise out headline CPI inflationforecast down by 12bp. The BoE voted to cut interest rates by 25bp, with a 5-4 majority. Thecut was hawkish, the tone cautious and we expect the next cut to come in March 2026. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks in Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 10.Completed: 22-Dec-25, 09:28 GMTReleased: 22-Dec-25, 10:00 GMT Following a broad-based slowdown from July to October, we note that almost all theChinesedomestic demand indicators pointed to a further sharp deterioration in November. Last week, we highlighted our views on stablecoins in theUS; this week, we dive intoJapanwhere we think the scope for stablecoin issuance is more limited. We are in the middle of a boom in demand forprotein, fuelled by a health-consciousconsumer and expanding prevalence of weight-loss drugs. Manufacturers are scaling to meetdemand, and companies are adapting with product innovation; we identify the winners and Barclays Research Highlights Stablecoin in Japan - potential bill demand limited JPYC issuance has been minimal. Growth potential for retail stablecoin usage in Japan appearsrelatively limited due to domestic payment competition, limited remittance flows and crypto US October/November employment: Strength behind distortions Payroll employment decreased in October and rose in November amid solid private sectorprints and DOGE-related declines in government employment. The unemployment rateincreased to 4.6% but the slack is likely exaggerated by special factors. This report raises our Latin America Outlook: Year-end FOMO Investors taking a year-end break from global markets may feel some FOMO regarding keyupcoming events and data in Latin America. We discuss the most relevant, organized into fivethemes: politics, monetary policy, fiscal policy, economic activity, and external/financial Barclays Key Macro Views US Outlook We maintain our baseline forecast of two 25bp rate cuts in 2026, in March and June, followedby an additional cut in 2027. The FOMC set a high bar for a third consecutive cut in January,with communications leaving only a slight opening if labor market data showed significant We now expect core CPI to rise 0.26% m/m in December (2.7% y/y), about 5bp slower thanour prior %m/m forecast and 0.5pp slower in %y/y terms. Turning to next year, we havelargely retained our core CPI path apart from folding in a rent spike as the bias from October's •We expect Q3 to come in at 3.0% q/q saar, with forecasts of 1.9% and 2.2% for 2025 and 2026,respectively. Euro Area Outlook The Governing C