2026年机械与电气设备展望：新年新装备——周期性复苏的理由

2026 Machinery & Electricals Outlook: New year, new gear - thecase for a cyclical recovery Lean into the cyclical recovery with machinery.Fundamentally speaking, 2025was challenging with street estimates falling 5-10% and core end markets (truck, ag &construction equipment) going through a classic cyclical downturn (~35% peak to troughdeclines are consistent with history). 2026 should be a recovery year driven by monetary &fiscal policy alignment, which restart positive estimate revisions - LSD/MSD upside. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com This recovery is not priced in, and 2026 performance should broaden beyond thethematic electrical trade.Coverage is pricing in a ~50 PMI (cyclical stagnation), ‘25outperformance came from power stocks (CAT, PWR, CMI), beating the S&P by +12% vs.rest (-2% vs. S&P). In ‘26, we believe the cyclical machinery stocks will lead. Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Construction equipment is the most tightly coiled spring.Looser global monetarypolicy and a strong fiscal impulse are about to hit the non-resi sector at the same time in‘26. The construction equipment supply/demand balance is tightening (utilization up, ratesup, used prices up, used & new inventories down). The fleet needs to grow in 2026 andOEM volumes should be up 5-10%, while rental rates grow by 2%. A bottom is forming in truck & ag equipment and a few positive catalysts to watch.N. America HD truck is set to decline by 6% Y/Y in 2026 at 225K units, 40K belowreplacement levels, but there are several catalysts ahead: driver supply reduction (CDL,ELP), a $450B in individual tax return boost raising goods demand, 2027 NOX pre-buy (bullcase), and section 232 CV tariffs that benefit PCAR. As for Ag, 2026 will likely mark a 40-year low in demand (-15% Y/Y) but improving farmer profits and tighter inventories (new &used) signal trough, while an EPA ruling on biofuels could boost soybean demand. Power access and affordability may create friction, but will it deliver a shock toelectrical equipment narrative?Electrical equipment is likely to remain strong in ‘26, but4 factors bear watching: 1) whether regulatory obstacles limit growth - ERCOT and PJMadjusted ‘26 demand down on this risk; 2) utilities shifting more capex to distribution; 3)data centers and electricity price inflation becoming a political hot button into midterms; 4)the growing importance of behind the meter for data centers - the most logical response toregulatory and political headwinds and orders should continue accelerating in 2026. 2026 focus stocks. URI (top pick):a cyclical recovery and business transformation story,the best way to gain exposure to the non resi construction recovery, the specialty businessis underappreciated, positive estimate revisions over the next 3 years, a re-rating story,42% potential upside.TRMB:secular story riding a cyclical recovery, low tech penetrationin construction allows software to grow 3x the market, AI disintermediation fears overdone(more likely a winner), an industrial tech compounder (+2% implied upside in ‘26, 20%CAGR over next 3 years), rerating catalyst ahead as gross margins expand, 25% potentialupside.HUBB:secular load growth and cyclical non-resi recovery beneficiary, distro/metergrowth overhang in rearview, utility capex tilt to distribution an underappreciated positive,1% implied upside in ‘26 but double digit compounder over next 2 years, ~23% potentialupside. Also Outperform onPCAR, ETN, LGN, J. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain ourOutperformrating(s) on: United Rentals (URI, $1,128), Trimble (TRMB, $99), Hubbell (HUBB, $530), PACCAR(PCAR, $117), Eaton (ETN, $395), Legence (LGN, $53) and Jacobs (J, $163). URI’s target price is based on an EV/ EBITDAmultiple of 11x to our 2026 EBITDA estimate, derived from a combination of peer group aggregation. TRMB’s target priceis based on a 28x P/E on our 2026 EPS. This is based on: (1) relative valuation vs. the S&P 500, (2) the current cycle, (3)company market position; and (4) idiosyncratic factors. HUBB’s price target reflects a 26x P/E on our ‘26 EPS. We believe thisis appropriate given the long-term secular factors favoring the strength and long-term HUBB’s earnings algorithm. PCAR’sprice target assumes a 23x P/ E multiple to our 2026 EPS. This is based on: (1) relative valuation, (2) current cycle, (3) companymarket position, and (4) company idiosyncratic factors. ETN’s price target applies a 27x P/E multiple (up from 25x) on our 2030EPS estimate (cut by 1%). Discounted back, we arrive at our target price, which implies a 29x P/ E on our 2026 EPS. LGN’sprice target applies a 17x EV/EBITDA multiple to our 2026 EBITDA estimate, which is based on our productivity frameworkand benchmarking analysis of publicly traded and recently acquired MEP contractors. J’s target price assumes a 22x multipleon our 2028 EPS