美国电信：宽带的未来（第五部分）——以星链为首的卫星宽带将成为生态系统中更重要的一环

US Telecom: Future of Broadband (Part V) - Satellite BB - led byStarlink - will be a bigger part of the ecosystem +1 917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.com connectivity. It has sat on the back burner for a couple of years, but we believe the timing isnow right. Martin Boruchowicz+1 917 344 8564martin.boruchowicz@bernsteinsg.comAndrew ChungSatellite broadband (“SBB”) accounts for ~2% of US broadband subscriptions today - butso did FWA in 2021. The viability of SBB as a mass-market consumer product hinges ontwo questions:can the technology deliver compelling performance, and can it do soat competitive cost? Today, Starlink’s Residential Plan is priced at $120 per month in the US (excluding taxesand a one-time equipment charge of $349). The plan includesunlimited data and typicaldownload speed of 135-305 Mbps- more than sufficient for the average US household. choose it? The answer is straightforward: it remains roughly2x the cost of wirelinealternatives that deliver >2x the speedwith higher - or at least perceived - reliability.When can SBB bridge this gap?We are almost there, at least at a point whereSBB could offer a compelling valueproposition to a meaningfully larger addressable base.Launch economics has ~10x the capacity of today’s v2 satellites in orbit, could materially shift the cost structure.Together, these dynamics could allow Starlink to target a far broader market at morecompetitive price points.SBB is not for everyone, but it is for far more than 2% of themarket.The what if scenario:What if Starlink prioritizes utilization through subscriber growth offering “good enough” speeds with unlimited data for $50 per month- comparable to FWA pricing today (unbundled). Do you see the possibilities and implications forincumbents? With improving economics and rising capacity, this scenario could becomeviable within the next few years, particularly as Starlink is expected to begin launching v3 satellites next year.Others are not standing still.While we believe the impact of SBB will ultimately be That said,two segments appear particularly vulnerable in our view:the value segment (assuming Starlink can address it with v3) and the FWA segment (overlapping with value segment), which has learned that “good internet” is internet that is cheap and works. Still,incumbents with ownership economics continue to bundle broadband with wireless ->40% of fiber subs and >50% of FWA subs take a wireless bundle - creating a clear ceilingfor broadband-only providers, including SBB (again, not 2%). way video streaming in dense environment? No.The primary constraint is free-space path loss(FSPL/“path loss”) - fancy phrase that basically says signal strength weakenswith distance (but proportionally to thesquareof the distance - aka “really fast.”). On aterrestrial network (e.g., Verizon), a small cell or macro tower may be only a few kilometersaway, but a LEO satellite orbits ~500 km above (lower for v3 for lower latency and limitedDTC applications). Compensating for that signal lossrequires meaningful technicaladvances on both the handset and satellite sides- and that is only the beginning of help, but such a solution would effectively resemble an MVNO-like business model, placingLEO players at a structural disadvantage. coming years, consumer wireless remains an unlikely arena for LEO players tocapture meaningful share on their own.This, in turn, leaves incumbents well positionedas they continue to lock in consumers through increasingly value-driven bundle offers,implying thatproviders without compelling bundles - or footprint - will compete at adisadvantage and remain more susceptible to share erosion in segments targeted INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain our Outperform rating for T (PT: $31) and Maket-Perform rating for VZ (PT: $46), TMUS (PT:$265), CMCSA (PT:$34), and CHTR (PT:$280) - all unchanged. DETAILS RELEVANT RECENT NOTES 18 Nov 2025 - US Telecom: Future of Broadband (Part IV) - Productizing BB beyond cheap and fast 13 Nov 2025 - US Telecom: 3Q25 Update - One after another... Q4 is here. (Deck) 9 Oct 2025 - US Telecom: Competitive intensity update (3Q25) - Promo Frenzy 15 Oct 2025 - US Telecom: Future of Broadband (Part III) - Could T, VZ, and TMUS achieve their fiber goals? Notwithout some ifs and buts 3 Oct 2025 - US Telecom: The Future of Broadband (Part II) - Lessons from Global Markets on Industry Structure 2 Oct 2025 - US Telecom: The Future of Broadband (Part I) - Transitioning to a New Oligopolistic Equilibrium 18 Sep 2025 - US Telecom: Wireless demand remains strong and net-adds rat race continues This note is the fifth installment in ourFuture of Broadbandseries. In parts I through IV, we analyzed multiple scenarios for howbroadband market share could evolve through 2030 as fiber continues to take share (I), examined broadband market structurein international markets over time and the factors that influenced it (II), broke down the economics behind fiber builds and theirlimi