2026年展望：连接传统与未来的关键一年

2026 Outlook-Bridginglegacy andfuture: Apivotalyear We believe 2026 will be a pivotal year for competing for user mindshare in theAIera,with key focuses on lowering AI adoption thresholds,improvingdecision-making efficiency, and creating real value. Among traditional internetbusinesses, companies thatpossess these threecharacteristicsare expectedto have higher long-term investment value: 1) stable cash flow to support AI-related investment and exploration; 2) rich application scenarios to accumulatedataand reach users;and 3)outstanding supply chain capabilities andoperational excellence to drive overseas expansion for incremental growth. Westill recommend adopting a barbell investment strategy, while focusing on boththe certainty of profit growth and new increments brought by AI. 1) For AIthemes: WefavourTencent, which is expected to see sustained rapid growthin advertising andcloud businesses driven by AI andbenefitsfrom the trend offoreign capital inflow; Alibaba, which will benefit from the AItrendwith abundantapplication scenarios but a lower valuation compared to peers; and Kuaishou,whose positive progress in AI application monetization is expected to driverevenue growth and valuation upside. 2) For certainty of profit growth: Werecommend NetEase and Trip.com, which have reasonable valuations, stableperformance, and highearningvisibility. China Internet Sector Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Related reports： 1.海外软件互联网龙头公司业绩启示-因需求强劲上调Capex指引，利润率影响程度分化–5 Nov2.AI主题研究-关注产业链协同发展布局的投资机会–17 Oct3.互联网-2025云栖大会：AI投资主线叙事再次强化–25 Sep4.互联网-关注中国互联网软件板块估值提升的结构性机会-19Sep5.AI主题研究-政策加速AI应用与商业化落地-29 Aug6.软件& IT服务-海外云厂商：营收增速环比加快，利润率表现分化-6 Aug7.互联网-WAIC大会：聚焦科技创新、普惠、协同共治-30Jul8.AI主题研究-模型能力持续提升，商业化持续推进-27 Jun9.互联网-商业模式护城河及竞争壁垒有效性重回关注焦点-12Jun10.互联网-短期关注防御属性及政策托底下有望受益的公司-8Apr11.AI主题研究-模型调用成本下降，应用生态有望逐步繁荣–26 Feb Consumption as thefoundation:visibility and certainty remain key.Looking backin2025, e-commerce benefited from "national subsidies" asexpected despite minor twists,local services competition intensified morethanexpected,and OTA showed stronger growth resilience thananticipated.Looking ahead to 2026,experiential consumption (travel,games, etc.) is set to outpace physical goods in growth, while online traveland gaming may see resilient profit growth. For physical goods retail, withthephasing out of national subsidies, competition may normalize. E-commerce platforms may adjusttheirinvestment prioritieswithin theinstantretailsector, balancing resources and efficiency to ease competition,althoughwe caution against overly optimistic expectationsfor the pace ofimprovement.Instant retail is expected to maintain strong GMV growth,whileon-site businesses may await macro recovery and stabilizedcompetition. For e-commerce,we recommend tofocus on companies withsteady profit growth, reasonable valuations, and sustained AI benefits.Technology as thebreakthrough:booming AI drives application and monetization growth.In 2025,LLMcompetition intensified, with improvedcapabilities and faster iteration of open-source models. Meanwhile,asAPIcostsfor existing models fell, industry applications flourished. Lookinginto2026, competition to enhance model capabilitiesmay persist, and AImonetization in niche segments is set to grow. We are optimistic aboutmonetization potential from improved AI agent capabilities, as well as paiduser penetration from advances in image/video generation models. Cloudandad will remain key AI-driven growth engines for core businesses.Currently, wedo notspot anyover-investment risks but emphasize theneed to track investment return cycles.Expandingoverseas:delivering long-term increments.In 2025,the overseasexpansion of OTA exceeded expectations,food deliveryoverseasachievedefficiencygains ahead of anticipation,game overseasgrowth was steady, ande-commerce overseas slowed marginally due togeopolitics. Looking ahead to 2026,theoverseas expansionofcloud is setto be a new growth driver,OTA overseas may maintain high revenuegrowth,local services overseasmayenter a high-growth phase, ande-commerce overseas will continue to prioritize efficiency over scale.Companies with strong cash flow, high profit margins, and ample cashreserves are better positioned to withstand macro and market cycles,supporting higher valuation and more stable stockperformance. Key Charts Source：OpenRouter, CMBIGM Source：Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source：Newzoo, CNG, CMBIGM estimates Source：Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source：MOFCOM, CMBIGM estimates Source：NBS,Latepost, Company data, CMBIGM estimates 2026 Outlook: 1)Online Music(10%-15% revenue and profit growth expected): We haveslightly revised down our expectations for the industry's profitgrowth rate and ourassessment of the competitive landscape.We expect the profit growth tocloselyalign withtherevenue growth, primarily due to a slower pace of overall gross pro