2026年展望：连接传统与未来的关键一年

2026 Outlook-Bridginglegacy andfuture: A We believe 2026 will be a pivotal year for competing for user mindshare in theAIera,with key focuses on lowering AI adoption thresholds,improvingdecision-making efficiency, and creating real value. Among traditional internetbusinesses, companies thatpossess these threecharacteristicsare expectedto have higher long-term investment value: 1) stable cash flow to support AI-related investment and exploration; 2) rich application scenarios to accumulatedataand reach users;and 3)outstanding supply chain capabilities andoperational excellence to drive overseas expansion for incremental growth. Westill recommend adopting a barbell investment strategy, while focusing on boththe certainty of profit growth and new increments brought by AI. 1) For AI China Internet Sector Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Related reports： 1.海外软件互联网龙头公司业绩启示-因需求强劲上调Capex指引，利润率影响程度分化–5 Nov Consumption as thefoundation:visibility and certainty remain key. Looking backin2025, e-commerce benefited from "national subsidies" asexpected despite minor twists,local services competition intensified morethanexpected,and OTA showed stronger growth resilience thananticipated.Looking ahead to 2026,experiential consumption (travel,games, etc.) is set to outpace physical goods in growth, while online traveland gaming may see resilient profit growth. For physical goods retail, withthephasing out of national subsidies, competition may normalize. E-commerce platforms may adjusttheirinvestment prioritieswithin theinstant 2.AI主题研究-关注产业链协同发展布局的投资机会–17 Oct 3.互联网-2025云栖大会：AI投资主线叙事再次强化–25 Sep 4.互联网-关注中国互联网软件板块估值提升的结构性机会-19Sep retailsector, balancing resources and efficiency to ease competition, 5.AI主题研究-政策加速AI应用与商业化落地-29 Aug 6.软件& IT服务-海外云厂商：营收增速环比加快，利润率表现分化-6 Aug 7.互联网-WAIC大会：聚焦科技创新、普惠、协同共治-30Jul Technology as thebreakthrough:booming AI drives application andmonetization growth.In 2025,LLMcompetition intensified, with improvedcapabilities and faster iteration of open-source models. Meanwhile,asAPIcostsfor existing models fell, industry applications flourished. Lookinginto2026, competition to enhance model capabilitiesmay persist, and AImonetization in niche segments is set to grow. We are optimistic aboutmonetization potential from improved AI agent capabilities, as well as paid 8.AI主题研究-模型能力持续提升，商业化持续推进-27 Jun 9.互联网-商业模式护城河及竞争壁垒有效性重回关注焦点-12Jun 10.互联网-短期关注防御属性及政策托底下有望受益的公司-8Apr need to track investment return cycles.Expandingoverseas:delivering long-term increments.In 2025,theoverseasexpansion of OTA exceeded expectations,food deliveryoverseasachievedefficiencygains ahead of anticipation,game overseasgrowth was steady, ande-commerce overseas slowed marginally due togeopolitics. Looking ahead to 2026,theoverseas expansionofcloud is setto be a new growth driver,OTA overseas may maintain high revenue 11.AI主题研究-模型调用成本下降，应用生态有望逐步繁荣–26 Feb Key Charts Source：OpenRouter, CMBIGM Source：Bloomberg, CMBIGM Source：Newzoo, CNG, CMBIGM estimates Source：Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source：MOFCOM, CMBIGM estimates Source：NBS,Latepost, Company data, CMBIGM estimates ChinaInternet:Sector 2026 Outlook: 1)Online Music(10%-15% revenue and profit growth expected): We haveslightly revised down our expectations for the industry's profitgrowth rate and ourassessment of the competitive landscape.We expect the profit growth tocloselyalign withtherevenue growth, primarily due to a slower pace of overall gross profit margin expansion,as the rapid growth in the fan economy and offline concert businesses of leading platformsisexerting moderate pressure on gross profit margins.Regarding the competitivelandscape, the fast-growing MAU ofSodaMusic has brought certain traffic competitionpressure, but the overall industry competitive structure remains stable. Leading platformscontinue to maintain their leading position by virtue of content advantages and economiesof scale. 2)Online Gaming(~10% revenue growth, 10%-15% profit growth expected): Wehave slightly adjusted our judgment on the certainty of the industry's profit growth. Lookingahead to 2026, the steady performance of leading evergreen games willsupportearnings,but whether the industry's growth can exceed expectations will largely depend on theperformance of several key new releases. 3)Online Advertising(~10% revenue and profitgrowth expected): We maintain our overall view on the industry basically unchanged, butanticipate significant divergence in performance across industry players. Companies that 2025 Sector Performance Review: 1) At the start of2025, event-driven catalysts likeDeepSeek’s launch and AI application advancements lifted HSTECH’s valuation. By earlyMarch, its PE ratio reached 19x (up 28% YoY), while expected EPS remained stable with valuation pullback. By early April, Hang Seng Tech’s PE hit a low of 14x (down 8% YoY)and sta