流动秀：熊市与CPI牛市

B&B Bear, CPI Bull 18 December 2025 The Flow Show willreturn on January 8th. Investment StrategyGlobal Scores on the Doors: gold 64.6%, stocks 18.3%, IG bonds 10.3%, HY 10.2%, govtbonds 6.6%, cash 4.1%, commodities 3.5%, bitcoin -6.1%, US$ -9.4%, oil -21.3% YTD. Tale of the Tape: BofA Bull & Bear indicator rises from 7.9 to 8.5…contrarian“sell”signal for risk assets triggered; 16 sell signals since 2002 followed on average by 2.4%loss in ACWI (hit ratio 63% - Table 1) & max drawdown of 6.4% (Table 2). The Biggest Picture: investors bull positioned for“run-it-hot”PMI & EPS acceleration(Chart 2) on rate cuts, tariff cuts, tax cuts; we say global EPS growth up 9% in’26 butwon’t surprise to upside given US unemployment up and bond vigilantes slowing AIcapex boom, unless big surprise China stimulus. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Price isRight: we say +ve H1’26 surprise more likely CPI to 2%, GT10 to 3.5%;peak global liquidity (rate cuts <80 not >150, highest BoJ policy rate since‘95–Charts4-5) but Fed QE, weak oil price, Trump policy needs to improve affordability, employersnot employees in charge of labor market for 1sttime since COVID = lower CPI, yields,US$; we’re not chasing risk-on consensus but playing lower CPI via long zero couponbonds, mid caps, EM equities, and natural resources. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Net % BofA Global FMS overweight equities + commodities & ISM manufacturing PMI Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investmentstrategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 14.12914006 Timestamp: 18 December 2025 09:25PM EST Weekly Flows: $98.2bn to stocks, $7.9bn to bonds, $3.1bn to gold, $0.5bn from crypto(1stoutflow in 4 weeks), $43.9bn from cash (biggest outflow since Apr’25). Flows to Know: •Bank loan: $1.1bn outflow…biggest 2-week outflow ($2.5bn) since Apr’25;•EM debt: $4.0bn inflow…biggest inflow since Jul’25;•Equity ETFs: $145bn inflow…record weekly inflow (led by $59bn to VOO and IVVETFs likely related to S&P 500 rebalancing);•Long-only equities: $46bn outflow…record weekly outflow (note past 10 years $3tnoutflow from active equity funds vs. $6tn inflow to passive equity funds–Chart 7);•US stocks: $77.9bn inflow…2ndbiggest ever (largest was $82.2bn week of Dec 18th2024);•Tech: $6.0bn inflow…1stinflow in 3 weeks;•Healthcare: $0.5bn outflow…biggest in 5 months. Flows to Know YTD: record inflows to equity ETFs $1.4bn (Chart 8), IG bonds $431bn,gold $98bn, crypto $48bn; record outflows from active equity funds $605bn (Chart 9)and US small cap $57bn. BofA Private Clients: $4.3tn AUM…64.6% stocks (at top of 39-66% historic range),17.8% bonds (at bottom of 17-34% range), 10.4% cash (at bottom of 10-21% range);past 4 weeks, private clients buying high dividend, bank loan and municipal bond ETFs,selling low volatility ETFs, consumer discretionary and TIPS. BofA Global Fund Manager Survey:investor sentiment inDecember FMSmost bullishof past3½years on "run-it-hot" macro & policy expectations; global growth and EPSexpectations highest since Aug'21, lowest 3.3% cash level since 1998, FMS allocation tostocks + commodities highest since Feb'22 (Chart 2). BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: rises from 7.9 to 8.5…contrarian sell signal triggered onhuge inflow to equity ETFs, rising global stock index breadth, hedge funds cutting lengthin VIX futures; note the "old" BofA Bull & Bear Indicator1jumped from 6.0 to 6.6 (Chart6); Bull & Bea