流动性表演：熊市与CPI牛市

bonds 6.6%, cash 4.1%, commodities 3.5%, bitcoin -6.1%, US$ -9.4%, oil -21.3% YTD. Tale of the Tape: BofA Bull & Bear indicator rises from 7.9 to 8.5…contrarian“sell”signal for risk assets triggered; 16 sell signals since 2002 followed on average by 2.4%loss in ACWI (hit ratio 63% - Table 1) & max drawdown of 6.4% (Table 2). Michael HartnettInvestment Strategist The Biggest Picture: investors bull positioned for“run-it-hot”PMI & EPS acceleration(Chart 2) on rate cuts, tariff cuts, tax cuts; we say global EPS growth up 9% in’26 butwon’t surprise to upside given US unemployment up and bond vigilantes slowing AI capex boom, unless big surprise China stimulus.The Price isRight: we say +ve H1’26 surprise more likely CPI to 2%, GT10 to 3.5%;peak global liquidity (rate cuts <80 not >150, highest BoJ policy rate since‘95–Charts michael.hartnett@bofa.comElyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087 4-5) but Fed QE, weak oil price, Trump policy needs to improve affordability, employersnot employees in charge of labor market for 1sttime since COVID = lower CPI, yields,US$; we’re not chasing risk-on consensus but playing lower CPI via long zero couponbonds, mid caps, EM equities, and natural resources.Chart2:Investors positioned for profit acceleration in ‘26Net % BofA Global FMS overweight equities + commodities & ISM manufacturing PMI elyas.galou@bofa.comAnya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS +1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.comMyung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS Net % FMS OW Equities + CommoditiesISM manufacturing PMI (RHS) +1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 14.12914006 Timestamp: 18 December 2025 09:25PM EST Bank loan: $1.1bn outflow…biggest 2-week outflow ($2.5bn) since Apr’25; EM debt: $4.0bn inflow…biggest inflow since Jul’25; Equity ETFs: $145bn inflow…record weekly inflow (led by $59bn to VOO and IVVETFs likely related to S&P 500 rebalancing);Long-only equities: $46bn outflow…record weekly outflow (note past 10 years $3tnoutflow from active equity funds vs. $6tn inflow to passive equity funds–Chart 7);US stocks: $77.9bn inflow…2ndbiggest ever (largest was $82.2bn week of Dec 18th2024);Tech: $6.0bn inflow…1stinflow in 3 weeks;Healthcare: $0.5bn outflow…biggest in 5 months.Flows to Know YTD: record inflows to equity ETFs $1.4bn (Chart 8), IG bonds $431bn,gold $98bn, crypto $48bn; record outflows from active equity funds $605bn (Chart 9) and US small cap $57bn.BofA Private Clients: $4.3tn AUM…64.6% stocks (at top of 39-66% historic range),17.8% bonds (at bottom of 17-34% range), 10.4% cash (at bottom of 10-21% range); past 4 weeks, private clients buying high dividend, bank loan and municipal bond ETFs,selling low volatility ETFs, consumer discretionary and TIPS.BofA Global Fund Manager Survey:investor sentiment inDecember FMSmost bullishof past3½years on "run-it-hot" macro & policy expectations; global growth and EPS expectations highest since Aug'21, lowest 3.3% cash level since 1998, FMS allocation tostocks + commodities highest since Feb'22 (Chart 2).BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: rises from 7.9 to 8.5…contrarian sell signal triggered onhuge inflow to equity ETFs, rising global stock index breadth, hedge funds cutting length in VIX futures; note the "old" BofA Bull & Bear Indicator1jumped from 6.0 to 6.6 (Chart6); Bull & Bear Indicator >8.0 = extreme bullishness = contrarian sell signal; mediandecline in global stocks = 2.7% in 2 months following 16 sell signals since 2002 (Chart19) with 63% hit ratio (Table 1); max drawdowns in 1 month, 2 months, 3 months aftersell signal = 4%, 6%, 9% respectively (vs. max upside foregone <2% - see Table 2). 200 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 1600Equity ETF flows (cumulative, $bn) Bonds:inflows past 34 weeks ($7.