水资源宏观临界性

Macro-Criticality of WaterResources Suphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, JunkoMochizuki, Christine Richmond, and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos WP/25/251 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025DEC IMF Working Paper Fiscal AffairsDepartment Macro-Criticality of Water ResourcesPrepared bySuphacholSuphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, Junko Mochizuki, ChristineRichmond, and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos Authorized for distribution by Dora BenedekDecember 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper examines the macro-criticality of water resources in the context of climate change. Itsummarizes the past and future trends of water scarcity and droughts and proposes a framework to analyze themacro-criticality and role of public sector engagement in the water sector. The paper maps out channelsthrough which water resources affect the macro-fiscal and balance of payments positions and develops anunderstanding of macro-fiscal exposure based on empirical evidence. It also synthesizes emerginginsights from IMF-supported operations and capacity development activities, thereby clarifying the rationaleand scope for IMF engagement in water-related policy reforms. WORKING PAPERS Macro-Criticality of WaterResources Prepared bySuphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros,Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond, and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos1 Contents INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND3Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................5Related Literature................................................................................................................................................7Recent Trends and Climate Change Outlook...................................................................................................9Recent Trends................................................................................................................................................9Climate Change............................................................................................................................................11Water Value Chain.......................................................................................................................................12Macroeconomic Impacts..................................................................................................................................13External Sector.............................................................................................................................................14GDP..............................................................................................................................................................15Sectoral Impacts...........................................................................................................................................17Fiscal Implications............................................................................................................................................20Fiscal Impacts from Water-Related Risks....................................................................................................20Spending Needs...........................................................................................................................................23Water-Related Spending..............................................................................................................................23SDG Costs...................................................................................................................................................24Adaptation Spending Needs.........................................................................................................................25Subsidies......................................................................................................................................................25Non-Revenue Water.....................................................................................................................................27IMF Engagement on Water...............................................................................................................................30Conclusions....................................................................................................