水资源宏观临界性（英）

Macro-Criticality of Water Suphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, JunkoMochizuki, Christine Richmond, and Sylke von Thadden- WP/25/251 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, 2025DEC IMF Working Paper Fiscal AffairsDepartment Macro-Criticality of Water ResourcesPrepared bySuphacholSuphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, Junko Mochizuki, Christine Authorized for distribution by Dora Benedek IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper examines the macro-criticality of water resources in the context of climate change. Itsummarizes the past and future trends of water scarcity and droughts and proposes a framework to analyze themacro-criticality and role of public sector engagement in the water sector. The paper maps out channelsthrough which water resources affect the macro-fiscal and balance of payments positions and develops an WORKING PAPERS Macro-Criticality of Water Prepared bySuphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros,Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond, and Sylke von Thadden- Contents Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................5 Related Literature................................................................................................................................................7 Recent Trends and Climate Change Outlook...................................................................................................9 Recent Trends................................................................................................................................................9Climate Change............................................................................................................................................11Water Value Chain.......................................................................................................................................12 External Sector.............................................................................................................................................14GDP..............................................................................................................................................................15Sectoral Impacts...........................................................................................................................................17 Fiscal Implications............................................................................................................................................20 Fiscal Impacts from Water-Related Risks....................................................................................................20Spending Needs...........................................................................................................................................23Water-Related Spending..............................................................................................................................23SDG Costs...................................................................................................................................................24Adaptation Spending Needs.........................................................................................................................25 IMF Engagement on Water...............................................................................................................................30 Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................................31 Annex I. Definitions...........................................................................................................................................36 Annex IV. The Macroeconomic Linkages of Water Utilities’ Operational Efficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa: Patterns and Correlations....................................................................................................................43 Annex V. RSF Reform Measures on Water.....................................................................................................46 BOXES 1. Ecuador: Macroeconomic Implications of the 2024 Electricity Crisis..............................................................192. Zambia: Fiscal Challenges Amid the 2023/24 Drought...................................................................................213. Jordan: Tackling Scarcity, Fiscal Pressures, and Sustainability Challe