全球研究营销10大宏观视角塑造2026-19150498

Global Research Marketing 10 Key Macro Views Shaping 2026 Investment Strategy 02 December 2025 1) More bullish than consensus on 2026 US GDP growth MacroGlobal Boosted by the OBBBA, restoration of TCJA benefits, fiscal stimulus, Fed cuts. 2) No AI bubble yet Thomas (T.J.) ThorntonHead of Research MarketingBofAS+1 646 855 2449thomas.thornton2@bofa.com AI investment spend has already boosted GDP growth andBofA US Economics expectscontinued AI growth next year. Derivatives Strategy’s new Bubble Risk Indicator Global EconomicsClaudio IrigoyenGlobal Economist 3) Constructive EM, solid backdrop with lower USD and oil A weaker USD, lower rates and low oil prices provide a solid backdrop while technicalsare favorable, especially with investors long-term underinvested. Aditya BhaveUS EconomistBofAS 4) More bullish than consensus on2026 China GDP growth Helen QiaoChina & Asia EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) StrategyBenjamin BowlerEquity-Linked Analyst We recently raised our China GDP growth forecast. The Trump-Xi meeting in Korea set amore positive tone on trade, and policy stimulus is trickling in. 5) Muted S&P returns but expect broadening, strong capex US Strategy expects 14% EPS growth in 2026 but only 4-5% S&P price appreciation. Weexpect a strong, broadening capex cycle; we are more concerned about consumption. Chris FlanaganFI/MBS/CLO StrategistBofAS 6) US needs lower inflation, favor long bonds in 1H26 David Hauner, CFA>>Global EM FI/FX StrategistMLI (UK) Michael Hartnett believes President Trump needs lower inflation and that contrarianTreasuries should be well bid until the new Fed Chair in May. Start trading“MID.” Francisco BlanchCommodity & Deriv StrategistBofA Europe (Madrid) 7)Expect flattish long rates and US home prices US Rates Strategy expects the 10Y to end2026 at 4-4.25% with risks to the downside.Securitized Products Strategy expects housing to become front and center in’26. We Mark Cabana, CFARates StrategistBofAS Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS 8) Expect volatility,especially as AI impact becomes clear Michael WidmerCommodity StrategistMLI (UK) A better understanding of the impact that AI has on growth, inflation and capex willcause volatility. K-shaped recovery, fiscal dominance are other sources of vol. Neha KhodaCredit StrategistBofAS 9) Private credit returns likely lower in ’26, prefer HY We expect 5.4% total returns for Private Credit (PC) in’26, down from 9% in’25.Potential for lower returns will impact PC allocation decisions. Ralf Preusser, CFARates StrategistMLI (UK) 10)Copper to perform on tight supply, strong demand Savita SubramanianEquity & Quant StrategistBofAS Base metals have pushed higher in’25 even with tepid demand from manufacturing andconstruction. Commodity Strategy expects continued supply challenges in 2026. MID = (longMid-caps, shortIGbonds, shortDollar) Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience inrelevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. 1) More bullish than consensus on 2026US GDP growth The BofA Global Research US Economics team raised 2026 GDP growth estimates withtheir Year Ahead and they now look for 4Q/4Q growth of 2.4%. In 2026, five factorsshould push growth back to 2.4%. The team expects the One Big Beautiful Bill Act(OBBBA) to add 0.3-0.4pp to GDP growth in FY 26 compared to a roughly flat impulse in2025. Business investment should benefit from the restoration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs And consumers will get around $100B (0.3% of GDP) in fiscal stimulus. Of this, ~$65Bwill be a tax-refund“windfall”due to favorable treatment of tip and overtime income,and a larger standard deduction for seniors. Refunds mostly get paid out in Feb-Apr. Ourforecast assumes that the resulting spending boost will peak in 2Q-3Q 2026. Second, the lagged effect of ongoing Fed cuts is likely to buoy activity in 2H26. In fact,we think the (real) policy rate could be in accommodative territory next year because i)inflation is stuck a few tenths above target, even excluding tariffs, ii) potential growth,and therefore r*, are higher than the Fed thinks and iii) financial conditions suggest policy isn’t very restrictive today. Easy financial conditions are likely supporting economic activity via the equity wealth effect and we expect that impulse to continuenext year.The US Economics team expects one more rate cut under Chair Powell and We now forecast GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, inflation to remain stable in 2026 The third tailwind is re