全球物流：供应链动态监测：韧性的一年，已交付

Supply Chain Pulse Check: A resilient year, delivered Global trade is emerging from a highly volatile 2025. The end of the US de minimisexemption, and a storm of tariff announcements, revisions and reliefs, frequently leftinternational logistics companies and their customers scrambling to respond. Despite allthis, the year looks set to close with global container volumes up c. +4% and internationalairfreight tons +5% — though sixth substantial differences in trade lanes and the Transpacificnotably soft. As liners edge closer to a return to Suez transits on Asia-Europe, volatility andshocks are not over yet. Alex Irving, CFA+44 20 7676 7044alex.irving@bernsteinsg.com David Vernon+1 917 344 8333david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com Antoine Madre+33 1 58 98 74 52antoine.madre@bernsteinsg.com Access our downloadable database here. Robust volumes, but PMIs sequentially declining.Global trade volumes grew +5.3%YoY in September, bolstered by an 8% surge in emerging market exports, with othermarkets largely flat. On the most recent forward-looking indicators, November fell in China(-0.7pt to 49.9), the US (-0.5pt to 48.2) and Europe (-0.4pt to 49.6). Justine Weiss+1 917 344 8433justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com Ocean: volumes +2% inOctober, rates close to 2y lows.Volume growth deceleratedin October to +2% YoY, bringing it to +4% YTD. Volatility remains high, with Asia-Europenow in decline and transpacific eastbound volumes down -8% in October (-4% YTD).Rates are holding near two-year lows, despite carriers' attempts to secure increases duringthe contracting season. Pressure looks likely to persist amid ongoing supply growth andincremental steps towards a return of Suez transits from CMA CGM in particular. Orderbook expands, again and again.Disproving our expectation that tariffs wouldfinally curb new vessel orders, orders have kept coming thick and fast. The orderbook grew+6% during Q3, with new orders equivalent to 3.4% of the in-service fleet and double therate of deliveries. We project the fleet to grow by +47% from 2019 to 2026, with more than7% net growth in each of 2027 and 2028. Oversupply threats continue to mount, and yettariffs and the associated macro risk to softness have not deterred shippers from buying. Airfreight: Revenue growth turns positive, driven by robust volumes.Revenue growthturned modestly positive in November following two consecutive months of decline. Thisturnaround was driven by mid-single digit year-over-year volume gains, although ratescontinue to comp lower. Dropping off from recent spot truck rate (ex. fuel) pickup, and expectunderwhelming ‘26 improvement.Sep. and Oct. spot truck rates (ex. fuel) +LSD YoY (and +MoM) reflected capacity exit benefits, as these were highest YoY rates since tariff-inducedpull-forward era earlier this yr, and there were no such major vol. boosts unfolding. Whilecapacity exits likely accelerated on stricter CDL oversight / ELP enforcement, benefitsappear to be easing: Nov. spot rate ~flat YoY, also down MoM (atypical vs. ‘24 and ‘23trends). Our recent industry expert discussion pointed to ‘26 just a bit better than ‘25 onlikely lack of market-tightening demand stimulus plus overstated supply tightening levers. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS InEurope, we rate DSV Outperform, DHL and Kuehne+Nagel Market-Perform, and Maersk Underperform. InNorth America,we rate UNP Outperform, NSC Outperform, CSX Market-Perform, CNI/CNR.CN Market-Perform, CP/CP.CN Market-Perform,CHRW Market-Perform, JBHT Market-Perform, UPS Outperform, and FDX Market-Perform. EUROPE DSV (Outperform, TP DKK1,800.00) DSV is our top pick in European Logistics. This is principally becausewe see synergiesas inadequately reflected in valuations.DSV has a superbtrack record of synergy realizationin M&A across five dealsin the last twenty years, and weexpect it to repeat this successin its latest, largest deal for DB Schenker. We expect thisacquisition to close in Q2 2025, following which DSV should become thelargest freight forwarder by both airfreight andseafreight volumes, and we see it as delivering post-synergy (2028) EPS of DKK 100+. At that point, share buybacks shouldrestart; we see the company capable of repurchasing DKK24bn of shares p.a., vs a current market cap of DKK374,132m. As afreight forwarder, it also has a defensive business model that can flex quickly in response to volume pressure. DHL (Market-Perform, TP €42.80) DHL is really five logistics companies under a single corporate umbrella. Itsearnings arelevered to ecommerce and world trade: c. 80% of EBIT to the former, 70% to the latter, and 60% to both. >50% of earningscomes fromExpress: a healthy three-player oligopolywith supportive pricing and GDP-plus structural growth (trade +ecommerce). Theasset-heavy nature of this division gives it meaningful operating leverage to volumes, however thereis more flex than may at first be obvious with~25% of capacity on short-term lease. The group is particularlylevered