OpenAI：战略承诺与现金流再评估

EquitiesSoftware, Semiconductors &Equipment OpenAI:Commitments vscash flowsrevisited United States ◆OpenAIsignssignificantcomputingcommitments with AWSand Microsoft but nonewcapital injection;weupdate model Nicolas Cote-Colisson*MD, Head of Global Tech PlatformsHSBC Continental Europenicolas.cote-colisson@hsbcib.com ◆OpenAIplansforUSD1.4trnofcomputecosts in nexteightyears;wecalculateUSD200bn+financinggapby 2030 Abhishek Shukla*, CFASenior Analyst, TechnologyHSBC BankMiddle East Ltd, DIFCabhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com+971 4 5093343 ◆AI megacycle: productivity gain potential on aUSD110trn+global GDPcanjustifythe highAI LLMs’sunkcosts Stephen BerseyHead of US Technology ResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.stephen.bersey@us.hsbc.com What’s new:Sinceour reportBig Buck Business: Can OpenAI afford it?(17 October 2025),OpenAI(OAI)announcedaUSD250bnpurchase of cloud computingfromMicrosoft(28 October) anda USD38bn deal with Amazon forsevenyears of cloudcomputing (3 November). OpenAI wasn’t the only one.Anthropic (not listed, c20%controlled by Amazon,c15% controlled by Alphabet)announced a contract withAlphabet for the supply of 1m TPU AI chips worth “tens of billions of dollars” (23 Frank Lee* Global Head of TechHardware & Semi ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfrank.lee@hsbc.com.hk Paul Rossington*Senior Global Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank plcpaul.rossington@hsbcib.com More cash neededto finance expansion.Weupdate our OpenAI forecasts with Davey Jose*Senior Global Tech Platforms AnalystHSBC Bank plcdavey.jose@hsbc.com our new compute capacityand rental cost schedule (page6)and concludeitwouldneed USD207bn of new financing by 2030.One unknown parameter is the flexibilitythat OpenAI may have to adjust its commitment vs effective demand or financial * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnotregistered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations AI megacycleahead:OpenAI’sforecast ofUSD1.4trnofcomputecosts overeightyearscompoundsinvestor nervousness about associated returns(given revenue ofcUSD12.5bn in 2025e), not only for OAI but for the interlaced AI chain.Yetas MSFT’s CEO put it, AI model companies, infrastructure owners,and chipmakers going tomarket together is helping customers to realiseAI’svalue. We look at productivity-gainupsidethat can be significant (page9)even not considering Artificial GeneralIntelligence (AGI).The most exposed partnersto Open-AIsuccess or failureunderour Issuer of report:HSBC Continental EuropeView HSBC GlobalInvestment Research at: Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Summary New commitments, new forecasts Since we last wrote onOpenAI(seeBig Buck Business: Can OpenAI afford it?, 17 October2025), OpenAI announced the purchase of an incremental USD288bn of cloud computing fromMicrosoft and Amazon. In this note, weupdate our compute capacity and rental cost schedule forecasts for OpenAI(page6). We also increase our medium-termrevenue forecasts slightly Funding gap: USD207bn–how to close it? We now estimate OpenAI will need to pay a cumulative USD792bn over 2H25-2030e on datacentre rent and cUSD1.4trn over 2H25-33e.Our new forecasts lead to a cumulated funding gapof USD207bn by 2030. Closing the gap would need one or a combination of factors, including higher revenue than in our central case forecasts, better cost management, incremental capitalinjections,or debt issuance (page8).Forexample, increasing the proportion of paid users We still view AI as a megacycle General Purpose Technology (GPT) productivity gains may have been difficult to evidence froma statistical standpoint in the past. But AI already drives an increase in compute efficiency,transforms and improves existing processes and business models, notmentioning newapplications and services to come withAgentic AI. This paradigm change cannot be ignored,in The most exposed partnersto Open-AI success or failure under our coverage are Oracle, Microsoft,Amazon, NVIDIA, and AMD (all rated Buy), and so is Softbank given its c11% stake in OpenAI. A selection ofHSBC reports on AI-related subjects AssessingAIbottlenecks: Gas power equipment ramping up to meet demand(19 Nov 2025) Quantum Revisited: From labs to trials(10 November 2025) BreakingBadNarratives:Causal evidence vs the AI bubble story(27 October 2025) Can AI trade FX?No, not really(27 October 2025) GlobalTech: Big Buck Business: Can OpenAI afford it?(17 October 2025) Is AI already impacting employment?(14 October 2025) Can AI be yourTeammate?(6 May 2025) AI Regulations 2.0:Evaluating copyright and privacy risks(8 April 2025) AIMisconceptions(17 March2025) Data centre equipment:Thank heavens for Jevons(10 February 2025) Artificial intelligence and the productivity paradox(15 August 2017) Artificial Intelligence: the new collective super-mind(6June 2016