中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张

ChinaFiscalPolicyOutlook:ModerateExpandsion?中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张 甘青Gan Qing从业资格号Qualification No：F03124127投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0023461程小庆Cheng Xiaoqing从业资格号Qualification No：F3083989投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0018635张菁Zhang Jing从业资格号Qualification No：F3022617投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013604桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要Abstract Fiscal policyis expectedto maintain an active stance next year,the intensity of fiscal supportnext year might be moderately increased.We projecta net government bond financing scale of 15.2tnyuan for 2026, an increase of about 820bnyuan compared to 2025.The degree of front-loadingmay moderate compared to this year. For the bond market, fiscal policy is not expected to deliver strong stimulus but rather a measuredboost, making a significant market adjustment driven by fiscal expansion unlikely. However, attentionshould be paid to potential volatility caused by periodic market speculation about further policyescalation. From a supply perspective, although the net financing scale of government bonds mayrise in 2026,against the backdrop of the central bank resuming treasury bond purchases, thepressure fromgovernment bond supply is likely to be manageable. The impact of supply issues mayprimarily manifest in the term structure, maintaining a steepening yield curve. Risks:Fiscalpolicyexceedsexpectations. 预计明年财政姿态仍偏积极，财政强度或为适度提升。预计明年政府债净供给约15.2万亿，较今年增加约8200亿，财政发力前置程度可能有所减弱。 对于债市而言，财政温和加力，因此财政政策导致债市大幅调整的可能性或不高。不过也需关注，市场阶段性博弈财政政策加码可能给债市带来的扰动，比如年初以及下半年可能面对一些潜在冲击时。另外，从供给角度看，虽然2026年供给量或有所上升，但是在央行重启国债买卖的情况下，供给压力整体可能不大，供给问题的影响可能更多体现在期限上，使得曲线维持陡峭化形态。. 风险因素：1）财政政策超预期。 Content目录 1．Proactive Fiscal Policy Stone.......................................................................................42．Moderate Expansion of Fiscal Policy..........................................................................42.1 The Economy is generally better than the same period last year...........................................................................42.2 Estimated Treasury Bond Net Financing: 7.08 tn Yuan, + 420 bn Yuan................................................................52.3 Estimated Local Government Bond Net Financing: at 8.1 tn Yuan, + 400 bn Yuan.............................................73．Optimized Expenditure Structure: Investing in People.............................................84．Less Front-loaded Implementation of Fiscal Policy..................................................8Appendix: Chinese Version..................................................................................................91．积极的财政基调延续积极..................................................................................................92．发力强度：适度扩张的财政政策.......................................................................................92.1当前时点的宏观经济形势整体可能或好于去年同期....................................................................................................92.2国债净融资：预计为7.08万亿元，同比增加4200亿元.........................................................................................102.3地方债净融资：预计为8.1万亿，同比增加约4000亿...........................................................................................123．支出结构优化，坚持民生导向........................................................................................134．前置程度有所减弱...........................................................................................................13CITIC Futures International Research Reports................................................................14 Related Reports相关报告 * Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read historical reports 20251217 China Monetary Policy Outlook：Moderate Easing 2026年中国货币政策展望：如何理解适度宽松20251215 Insights from the Central Economic Work Conference中央经济工作会议学习体会20251126 China Futures Annual Outlook中国期货2026年度展望20251121 Drivers Analysis and Risk Management of the CNY's Strength人民币汇率偏强原因分析及风险管理202501030 Policy Readings on the“15th Five-Year Plan”“十五五”规划建议联合点评 Charts图表 Chart 1: China Consumer Confidence Index......................................................................................................5Chart 2: Target Deficit-to-GDP Ratio (%)............................................................................................................6Chart 3: Target Deficit Scale (100 mn).................................................................................................................6Chart 4: Retail Sales of “Trade-In” Goods (yoy, %)...........................................................................................6Chart 5: Fixed Asset Investment (YTD yoy, %)..................................................................................................6Chart 6: Ultra-long-term Special Treasury Bonds (100 mn).............................................................................6Chart 7: Core Tier-1 Capital Adequacy Ratio of Large State-Owned Ban