全球信用展望：不只是阳光和彩虹

Not just sunshine and rainbows Late-cycle extension will shape 2026. We expect solidfundamentals and benign macro to meet surging supply,rising animal spirits, and tight valuations. Spreads shouldedge wider as dispersion and tail risks rise. Yields continue toanchor demand and we expect positive total returns acrossmarkets. BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, US Dominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US Soren Willemann+44 (0) 20 7773 9983soren.willemann@barclays.comBarclays, UK Overview Not just sunshine and rainbows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Deteriorating technicals amid rising animal spirits, coupled with tight valuations, are likely tooutweigh a benign macro backdrop and solid fundamentals. We see modestly wider spreads inmost markets in 2026. High all-in yields should help, with positive total returns expected acrossall markets. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 347 . FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 348 . US Investment Grade Shiftingwinds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 We forecast spreads at 90-95bp by YE26 vs. 80bp now, implying 0%/4.25% excess/total return.We see a mildsell-offbecause of tight starting spreads, late-cycle lower capital discipline andhigher supply while macro/fundamentals are in a good spot, which should create opportunities. US High Yield Opportunity amid asymmetry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Valuations are asymmetrically postured across much of high yield heading into 2026, and weexpect spreads to widen modestly next year, to 310-340bp. Carry, from both spreads and rates,should still provide a decent backdrop for returns, and we expect total returns of 4.5-5.5%. US Leveraged Loans A delicate balance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Loans are mostly priced to perfection with rates expected to decline. Higher-for-longer ratescouldaffectfundamentals, but too sharp a decline creates risks to demand. We see the LLIending the year at $96.0-97.0, versus $96.7 today, for total returns of 5.0-6.0%. Municipal Strategy Munis Strike Back. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 Munis had a nice recovery in 2H25, although HY has underperformed. With the tailwind ofsomewhat lower rates, steeper UST curves and tighter spreads, we expect another solid year. Inour base case, we see 4% returns for the IG index, 6% for the HY index, but taxable spreadsmoving 5-10bp wider. Global CLOs Dancing in the dark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146Despite increasing uncertainties and risks in our inputs, we expect CLOs to maintain strongissuance at the expense of spreads leaking slightly wider, with enough reasons to keep themusic going for another year. European Investment Grade Bending, not breaking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 An improving growth outlook should underpin credit fundamentals, while past ECB cuts andattractive yields are positive for demand. However, tight valuations and continued supplysuggest technicals may be past their peak. We expect spreads todriftwider next year, to 90bp. Sterling High Grade Treading carefully. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 Accelerating growth and moderating inflation point to a firmer macro backdrop next year. But £-IG still faces demand headwinds and rich valuations, with support reliant on subdued issuancevolumes. We expect spreads to leak wider to 95bp, implying modest excess returns but solidtotal returns. European High Yield A landscape of thin margins. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191The macro backdrop re