2030年全球消费支付的未来

Contents Futurescapes of consumer payments03Exploring the possible future scenarios06A deep dive into possible scenarios08Utilitarians09Soloists11Plug and Players13Trendsetters15Coming next17Appendix: Measuring global cooperation and adoption of innovation18Contacts21 This report is the first in a seriesand provides a framework forunderstanding the current stateof payments, as well as thequestions that players willneed to address to besuccessful in the future. Futurescapes ofconsumer payments Moreover, digital currencies should gainwidespread acceptance, transitioning fromspeculative assets to trusted mediumsof exchange. But which of these currencyformats—cryptocurrencies, fiat-backedstablecoins, or central bank digitalcurrencies (CBDCs)—become mainstreamremains to be seen. Modern infrastructurewill make near real-time payments thenorm. Real-time payment transactionsare expected to grow to 575 billiontransactions globally in 2028, more thantwice the 266 billion transactions in 2023.3Tokenization will support faster, safer valuetransfers. Moving money across borders—from wallet to wallet—could become justas easy as sending a text. By 2030, the consumerpayments ecosystemwill undergo a profoundtransformation, makingthe act of paying as naturaland effortless as smiling. Probably not. This future won’t unfolduniformly across the globe. Differenteconomies will likely move at differentspeeds. We anticipate divergentfutures playing out at the sametime across geographies. On the one hand, many current trendswill accelerate. Digital payments will offerendless choices. Transactions will likelybecome invisible—whether it’s consumer-to-business (C2B), peer-to-peer (P2P),or even consumer-to-government.Digital payments, both online and in-person, are expected to surpass$33.5 trillion by 2030, a 10.2% CAGR from$18.7 trillion in 2024.1APIs will embedpayments into every step of the shoppingjourney. Payments won’t feel like an action;they’ll be part of the experience. Imagine this: tourists in SoutheastAsia paying local street vendors with asimple biometric gesture. Or an expatbusinesswoman sending money andshopping online using multiple currencies.Picture an AI engine that recommendsthe best product to buy with the paymentmethod that earns the highest rewards,tailored entirely to a customer’s digitalidentity. Or advanced facial recognitionkicks in the moment a consumer beginsa transaction. No PINs. No swipes. Digital payments willoffer endless choices.Transactions will likelybecome invisible—whether it’s consumer-to-business, peer-to-peer,or even consumer-to-government. Digital wallets will become everydaycompanions. They are expected tocomprise 66% of global e-commercepayments transactions and 45% globalpoint-of-sale transactions in 2030, upfrom 53% and 32% in 2024, respectively.2Paying will be instant, effortless, and intuitive. It is not hard to envision a future where theboundaries between physical and digitaltransactions blur into oblivion. Technologyand innovation come together to createa truly intelligent and invisible paymentexperience. Even our definition of moneycould be reimagined with the shift to digitalassets already underway. But is it thateasy and straightforward? So, what will these future scenarios be,and what are the potential implicationsfor payments institutions? This article isthe first in a series of thought leadershipperspectives on “Global payments in 2030”,aimed at painting a picture of the potentialevolution of consumer payments. We haveadopted a rigorous, structured approachand input from Deloitte’s global paymentsleaders to build and expand on thesescenarios (see more in methodology).In subsequent articles, we will use adata-backed approach to explore howdifferent markets are positioned in thisevolving landscape—and what it meansfor industry players. On the other hand, the future is notwithout its uncertainties. Geopoliticalshifts could potentially fracture the globalpayments system, changing who tradeswith whom—and how. Already, severalnations are piloting alternatives to the U.S.dollar as a reserve currency. This coulddisrupt the existing order. The degree of international collaborationwill play a crucial role in determining how(and where) the payments landscapebecomes more integrated or fragmented.Disparate regulatory frameworks and a lackof mutual trust could complicatecross-border transactions, increasingcompliance costs and operationalcomplexities for financial institutions(FIs). Additionally, the uneven paceof technological innovation acrossgeographies could lead to differentpayment methods competing fordominance across various regions. We invite you to join us on this journeyof navigating the future of paymentsand engage with us to determine howto position yourself competitively inthis dynamic industry. The degree of international collaboration willplay a crucial role in determining whether(and where) the payments landscape becomesmore integrated or fragmented. 2.Worldpay