《2030年未来状态：塑造政府的全球大趋势》

TableofcontentsForewordExecutive summaryThe global megatrends impacting governments andcitizens alike into 2030The key changes indicated by the megatrendsIntroductionThe good newsUnderstanding interconnectednessWhat about security?Analyzing impact: Our approachGlobal megatrendsGlobal megatrend #1: DemographicsGlobal megatrend #2: Rise of the individualGlobal megatrend #3: Enabling technologyGlobal megatrend #4: Economic interconnectednessGlobal megatrend #5: Public debtGlobal megatrend #6: Economic power shiftGlobal megatrend #7: Climate changeGlobal megatrend #8: Resource stressGlobal megatrend #9: UrbanizationConclusion:Analysis of megatrend impactsWhat governments need to change?How governments need to change?AppendixAcknowledgementsBibliographyEndnotes 122468810101214182226303438424652525562636468 AbouttheMowatCentreThe Mowat Centre is an independent publicpolicy research centre located at the School ofPublic Policy & Governance at the University ofToronto. The Mowat Centre is a non-partisan,evidence-based voice on public policy. Itundertakes collaborative applied policyresearch, proposes innovative research-drivenrecommendations, and engages in publicdialogue on Canada’s most important nationalissues.www.mowatcentre.cainfo@mowatcentre.ca ForewordMajor global forces taking shape today willsignificantly impact the business landscape for thepublic and private sector through to 2030. Whileglobal megatrends have been documented on a macroscale, KPMG International wanted to delve more deeplyinto the implications for national governments and publicsector policy makers and thus engaged the Mowat Centreat the School of Public Policy and Governance, University ofToronto, to conduct targeted research. What we found willhelp guide important conversations over the next few years.The findings identify nine global megatrends that are most salient tothe future of governments and their core responsibilities of economicprosperity, security, social cohesion and environmental sustainability.While their individual impacts will be far-reaching, the trends are highlyinterrelated.Therefore, governments will need to consider and evaluatetheir impacts both in isolation and in combination. We present possibleoptions for governments to consider using the core tools available –policy, regulation and programs – as well as the strategies, structures andskills that future governments will need to have in place to achieve thecharacteristics of a ‘leading practice’ government in the future.Our report suggests that appropriate strategies for future success willinclude greater cooperation in the international arena, promoting behavioralchange in citizens and an increased focus on proactive measures to mitigatethe worst of the impacts. Governments will be characterized by a shifttowards becoming more integrated, outward focused and making betterand greater use of technology. Concerted capacity development in evidence-based policy development and stakeholder management will be essential tomaking the most of opportunities and managing risk in a changing world.There is not a unique path that all governments should follow. While thisreport is global in nature, the impact of each megatrend at the local level,coupled with the needs of countries of varying sizes, different stages ofeconomic development, governance models and a host of other factors,will invariably demand different approaches.Future State 2030is the first in a series of important conversations thatwe want to have with government organizations over the next few years.Ultimately, the report serves as an evidence-based summary designedto stimulate thinking about the future. We are excited about the manybenefits that Future State provides and encourage you to contact yourlocal KPMG member firm to discuss how the global megatrends will playout in your jurisdiction.Nick ChismGlobal ChairGovernment & InfrastructureThroughout this document, “KPMG” [“we,” “our” and “us”] refers to KPMG International, a Swiss entitythat serves as a coordinating entity for a network of independent member firms operating under theKPMG name, and/or to any one or more of such firms. KPMG International provides no client services. Executive summaryThe global megatrends impacting governments andcitizens alike into 20301DemographicsHigher life expectancy and falling birth rates areincreasing the proportion of elderly people acrossthe world, challenging the solvency of social welfaresystems, including pensions and healthcare. Someregions are also facing the challenge of integratinglarge youth populations into saturated labor markets.Citizen questions to government:Will I have a pension when I am old and will it besufficient for me to live on?How will we ever find enough jobs for our youth?Rise of the individualAdvances in global education, health and technologyhave helped empower individuals like never before,leading to increased demands for transparency andparticipation in government and public decision-makin