AI智能总结
remain weak Market Analysis Price Spreads:In terms of flat prices, oil prices maintained a downward trend last week, with Brent falling to $61/barrel and WTI to $57/barrel, indicating a downward trend.Regarding time spreads, the spreads for the three major benchmark crude oils weakened, with near-termspreads falling back to near zero, especially the Dubai spread, which fell significantly. This may be driven by two factors:firstly, Saudi Arabia'scontinued reduction of the OSP discount; and secondly, signs of resumption of purchases by Russian oil buyers who had previously suspendedpurchases. Brent CFDs showed a backwardation structure and remained relatively firm recently. Short-term spreads are still supported by theresumption of operations at European and American refineries from autumn maintenance, but we expect a contango shift in the first quarter ofnext year to be highly probable. Regional spreads: Brent Dubai EFS continued to fluctuate around zero, while the WTI-Brent near-month spreadnarrowed to $4/barrel, indicating that the divergence between regional supply and demand is not significant in the near term. Regarding physicaldiscounts, North Sea crude oil discounts remained largely unchanged last week, BFOET discounts were basically stable, Johan Sverdup crude oildiscounts continuedto decline, and WTI Northwest Europe CIF discounts remained at $2/barrel. In West Africa, Nigerian and Angolan crude oildiscounts remained stable, with recent market demand showing slight improvement. In the Mediterranean, affected by Western sanctions, Uralscrude oil discounts continued to decline and have not yet stabilized, currently falling to $25/barrel, while Azeri and CPC crude oil discountsremained basically stable. In the Middle East, Middle Eastern physical discounts to official prices were basically in line with Dubai spreads, Inventories:According to Kpler high-frequency inventory data, global onshore and offshore crude oil inventories (excluding China and USSPR inventories) increased to 3.083 billion barrels last week. The recent rate of inventory accumulation has slowed, but the absolute inventorylevel is at a 5-year high for the same period. China's onshore crude oil inventories have recently increased slightly again to 1.21 billion barrels(including satellite floating roof tanks but excluding underground SPR). China is currently still in an oversold state, with crude oil importsexceeding refinery processing volumes. Although local refinery operating rates have recently rebounded, the operating rate ofmajor oil Crude oil shipments: Global crude oil shipments totaled 44.2 million barrels per day (bpd), a decrease of approximately 2 million bpd fromthe previous peak, but still at a 5-year high for the same period. Middle East shipments reached 18.74 million bpd, remaining at a high level.Kuwait saw a significant increase in crude oil exports due to maintenance at the Al-Zour refinery, while Saudi Arabia's crude oil exportsremained high at 6.7 million bpd. Iraqi crude oil exports rebounded to 3.6 million bpd, with a significant increase in exports from the north. at 5.8 million bpd, with Brazilian shipments recently remaining at a high of 2.1 million bpd. Shipments from the new Yellow Tail FPSO projectin Guyana increased to 900,000 bpd, and Venezuelan shipments were at 700,000 bpd, showing little impact from geopolitical disturbances.West African shipments fell to 3.1 million barrels per day, while North African shipments remained at 2.2 million barrels perday (includingtransitshipments from Egypt). In North America, Canadian crude oil shipments reached approximately 950,000 barrels per day, while USshipments fell to 3.77 million barrels per day. Shipments from Russia (formerly part of the Soviet Union) remained at 3.4 millionbarrels perday. Affected by port attacks, Kazakhstani shipments continued to decline to 1.1 million barrels per day, the lowest level atthe end of the year. Refinery Maintenance:Global refinery shutdowns continued to decline, falling to approximately 5.1 million barrels per day this week. Thisdecrease was primarily due to the resumption of production at European refineries, the gradual restart of production at Russian refineries, andthe completion of maintenance schedules in China. Shutdowns areexpected to decrease by approximately 900,000 barrels per day in thecoming week and by another 1 million barrels per day the following week. US refinery shutdowns remained at approximately 241,000 barrelsper day this week, after last week's data was revised upwards due to slower-than-expected crude oil refining rates in the region. The Deer Parkrefinery continued its restart, but a significant portion of its crude oil processing capacity remained offline. The Drake Taylor refinery reportedminor downstream disruptions, including a brief maintenance of the CO2 boiler associated with the catalytic cracking regenerator. The Valero maintenance programs in the region concluded. In Northwest Europe