宏观周报：美联储降息

Core Point Market Analysis Domestic:"Improving quality and efficiency". 1) Monetary policy: A moderately loose monetary policy next year, and use various policy tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently. 2) Macro policy: Next year's economicwork should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency;"promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize", included "reasonable price recovery" as an important consideration inmonetary policy; "formulating andimplementing an income-increasing plan for urban and rural residents" and "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market". 3) Economic data: Nov exports in USD increased by 5.9% yoy, while imports year and buy US $40 billion of short-term bonds; Hassett said the Fed has "plenty of room" to cut IR; the RBA kept IRunchanged, next step to raise; the SNB kept IR at zero for the second time in a row; Governor of BOJ said graduallyapproaching the sustained inflation target, "more than one" rate hike in the future. 2) Economic data: The U.S. employmentcost index 3.5% yoy in the 3Q, four-year low; the trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in Sep, the lowest level since Jun Strategy After the end of the BS reduction in Dec, the Fed quickly restarted the BS expansion this week. Highlights the pressure onthe liquidity of the money market, though created a short-term market boom. Keep an eye on whether there is an unknown Global:USD turns neutral (+/-DXY), U.S. debt is neutral (+/-TU);Domestic:Tactically flatten the yield curve (+ 1 × T2603 × TS2603, 1-3 months); strategically steepen the yield curve (+ 2× TS 2603-1 × T 2603, 3-6 months). Risk Escalation of geo-conflict, European and American debt risks, and yen appreciation risks Catalogue Macro Focus...............................................................................................................................................31.1TOPCHARTS.........................................................................................................................................................................31.2MACRONEXTWEEK............................................................................................................................................................4Macro Charts..............................................................................................................................................52.1MACROECONOMICAGGREGATE...........................................................................................................................................52.2MACROECONOMICSTRUCTURE............................................................................................................................................62.3CHARTS INMACROFLOWS...................................................................................................................................................9 Charts Figure1:National Income Doubling Plan...............................................................................................................................3Figure2:Economic Calendar...................................................................................................................................................4Figure3:Surprise & PMI.........................................................................................................................................................5Figure4:Inflation Surprise......................................................................................................................................................5Figure5:CN Cycle....................................................................................................................................................................5Figure6:US Cycle.....................................................................................................................................................................5Figure7:CN CAPEX................................................................................................................................................................6Figure8:US CAPEX................................................................................................................................................................6Figure9:Global PMI Trends...................................................................................................................................................6Figure10:GlobalInflationTrends....................................................................................................................................7Figure11:Global Consumption Trends..................................................................................................................................7Figure12:Global Import Trends..............................................................................