贵金属周报：美联储预期降息；贵金属高区间交易

Market News and Key Data Macroeconomic During the week ending December 12, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis pointsto3.50%–3.75%.This markedthe Fed’s third rate cut of the year, following reductions of the same magnitude on September 17and October 29. The meeting vote passed with 9 in favor and 3 against, as some committee members advocated for keeping rates unchanged or implementing a larger cut. and persistently high inflation. The Committee remains focused on the two-sided risks to its dual mandate. Additionally, itis worthnoting that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the Fed launched a monthly short-term Treasurypurchase program of approximately $40 billion starting December 12, a move widely interpreted by the market as a clear Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated at the post-meeting press conference that monetary policy follows no presetcourse and decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on incoming data. While inflation remains elevated,non-tariff-driven core inflation has improved significantly. Without new tariffs, goods inflation is projected to peak in thefirst quarter of 2026. Interest rates are now at the upper end of the neutral range, with policy transitioning from restrictiveto neutral territory. To ease market pressures, the scale of short-term Treasury purchases will remain elevated in the coming U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, arguing that the rate cut was too smalland that the Fed could have doubled the magnitude of the reduction. Fundamental Analysis During the week ending December 12, 2025, gold warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) stood at91,302 kilograms, a week-on-week change of 3 kilograms. Silver warehouse receipts saw a change of 132,965 kilogramsto reach 820,921 kilograms. As for COMEX inventories, COMEX gold stocks fell by 342,923.18 ounces week on week to 35,967,752.07 ounces in thecurrent week. COMEX silver stocks dropped by 3,710,865.74 ounces to 453,359,774.03 ounces. In terms of precious metal ETFs, the holdings of the SPDR Gold Shares ETFstood at 1,053.12 tonnes, and those of theiShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF were 16,103 tonnes in the latest week ending December 12. As of November 18, 2025, the CFTC holdings data showed that speculative net long positions in goldtotaled 96,685 contracts. Speculative net long positions in silver came in at 20,933 contracts. electronic components sector index, which is related to precious metals, rose 3.59%. The photovoltaic (PV) sector indexclimbed 1.19%. Regarding PV price indices, the latest data as of June 3, 2025, showed the PV price index was unchanged at 13.72 from theprior period. The PV Manager Index came in at 141.22, up 5.01% month on month. Trading Strategies Gold: Cautiously BullishThe main driver of the current gold market remains trading around U.S. monetary policy. Besides the widely expected rate cut in December, the monthly $40 billion short-term Treasury purchase program may fuelexpectations for marginallylooser monetary policy, which is likely to trigger a new round of price moves. In addition, gold has underperformed silverin terms of price gains, suggesting upward potential for the gold-silver ratio. Gold prices are expectedto remain in a strong Silver prices are currently performing strongly and have hit a record high. Given silver’s inherently higher volatility,investors can still buy on dips for hedging purposes. However, more attention should be paid to position control and strict Options: On hold Strategy Risktext Charts Figure1:yields on US bonds丨unit : %..................................................................................................................................4Figure2:yields on Euro bonds丨unit : %...............................................................................................................................4Figure3:spread on 1 year US-Euro bond丨unit : %.............................................................................................................4Figure4:spread on 10 year US-Euro bond丨unit : %...........................................................................................................4Figure5:CFTC gold position丨unit : contracts.....................................................................................................................4Figure6:CFTC silver position丨unit : contracts...................................................................................................................4Figure7:SHFE gold price........................................................................................................................................................5Figure8:SHFE silver price......................................................................................................................................................5Figure9:COMEX gold price.......