中国经济：信贷复苏不均衡

Unevencredit recovery Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Social financing flows rebounded above market expectation in November largelydrivenby off-balance-sheet financing and corporate bond issuance,whilegovernment bond issuance stabilized after a sharp slowdown in October. Creditdemand remained weak as RMBloans to the real economy continued tocontract. The household sector saw the first contraction in history, reflectingongoing stress in the property market and cautious consumption. Corporatefinancing improved but tilted toward short-term liquidity management rather thancapex expansion as M&L-term loans remained subdued. The recovery in credit Bingnan YE,Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Social financing flows rebounded driven by off-balance-sheetfinancing.Outstanding social financing (SF) growth was unchanged at8.5% YoY in Nov, following a decline from 8.7% in September, highlightingcontinued moderation in aggregate financing. SF flowrose 6.9% YoY toRMB2.49tn, beating market expectations of RMB2.02tn, driven mainly bystrongeroff-balance-sheet financing andcorporate bond issuancewhileRMBloans remained soft. Off-balance-sheet financing was the majordriver asnew trust loansand new undiscounted bankers’ acceptancesrose 63.7% and 827.5% toRMB84.4bnand RMB149bn,reflecting thesubstitutionamid weak on-balance-sheet loan demand andcorporates’preference for short-tenor liquidity management.Corporate bond issuance remainedsolid at RMB417bnin Nov, up 75% New RMB loans remained weak, led by household deleveraging.Growth of outstanding RMB loans edged down further to 6.4% YoY in Nov, marking another record low. New RMB loan issuance dropped 32.8%toRMB390bn, below market expectations of RMB504bn. Householdloanscontracted RMB206bnin Nov, marking the first contraction of householdloans in history, as short-term loans contracted by RMB215.8bn in Nov,reflecting fragile confidence in consumption. M&L-term loans dropped96.7% to RMB10bnin Nov, as housing demand remained weak. Corporate Source: Wind, CMBIGM Recent data developments reflected moderating demand shock ineconomy.With household credit still contracting and corporate borrowingskewed toward bill financing and off-balance-sheet financing, the recoveryin credit data flows appears more financial than real-economy driven.Absent a clearer stabilization in property and consumption, underlyinggrowth momentum is likely to remain soft, keeping the door open for further forward,we expect a 50bp cut in RRRanda 10bp cut in LPRin1Q26followed by an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26. Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analystwho is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personalviews about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of thisreport; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock withpotential loss of over 10% over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns fr