中国经济：信贷复苏不均衡

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | EconomicPerspectives China Economy Unevencredit recovery Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Social financing flows rebounded above market expectation in November largelydrivenby off-balance-sheet financing and corporate bond issuance,whilegovernment bond issuance stabilized after a sharp slowdown in October. Creditdemand remained weak as RMBloans to the real economy continued tocontract. The household sector saw the first contraction in history, reflectingongoing stress in the property market and cautious consumption. Corporatefinancing improved but tilted toward short-term liquidity management rather thancapex expansion as M&L-term loans remained subdued. The recovery in creditdata flows appears more financial than real-economy driven. Looking ahead, thecontinued deceleration in money and credit growth points to soft underlyingmomentum, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will prioritize policytransmission while retaining easing optionality.Weexpect a 50bp cut in RRRand a 10bp cut in LPR in1Q26, followed by an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26. Bingnan YE,Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Social financing flows rebounded driven by off-balance-sheetfinancing.Outstanding social financing (SF) growth was unchanged at8.5% YoY in Nov, following a decline from 8.7% in September, highlightingcontinued moderation in aggregate financing. SF flowrose 6.9% YoY toRMB2.49tn, beating market expectations of RMB2.02tn, driven mainly bystrongeroff-balance-sheet financing andcorporate bond issuancewhileRMBloans remained soft. Off-balance-sheet financing was the majordriver asnew trust loansand new undiscounted bankers’ acceptancesrose 63.7% and 827.5% toRMB84.4bnand RMB149bn,reflecting thesubstitutionamid weak on-balance-sheet loan demand andcorporates’preference for short-tenor liquidity management.Corporate bond issuance remainedsolid at RMB417bnin Nov, up 75%YoY.Government bond issuance narrowed the decline to 8%toRMB1.20tn, a notable improvement from October’s sharp contraction at-54%, suggesting fiscal drag due to front-loading eased at the margin. RMBloans to the realeconomy under SF fell 22.3% YoY to RMB405bnin Nov,underscoring persistently weak bank credit demand. M1 growth slowedfurther to 4.9% from 6.2%, while M2 eased to 8.0%, pointing to weakeningbusinessactivitiesand declining money velocity. Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM New RMB loans remained weak, led by household deleveraging.Growth of outstanding RMB loans edged down further to 6.4% YoY in Nov,marking another record low. New RMB loan issuance dropped 32.8%toRMB390bn, below market expectations of RMB504bn. Householdloanscontracted RMB206bnin Nov, marking the first contraction of householdloans in history, as short-term loans contracted by RMB215.8bn in Nov,reflecting fragile confidence in consumption. M&L-term loans dropped96.7% to RMB10bnin Nov, as housing demand remained weak. Corporateloanrose 144% in NovtoRMB610bncompared to 169% in Oct, but M&L-term loans remained soft dropping 19%, while ST loans and bill financingrebounded sharply, suggesting firms continued to favor short-term liquiditytools over long-term investment commitments. Source: Wind, CMBIGM Recent data developments reflected moderating demand shock ineconomy.With household credit still contracting and corporate borrowingskewed toward bill financing and off-balance-sheet financing, the recoveryin credit data flows appears more financial than real-economy driven.Absent a clearer stabilization in property and consumption, underlyinggrowth momentum is likely to remain soft, keeping the door open for furtherpolicy easing should downside risks intensify. The Central Economic WorkConference outlined the monetary policy stance for 2026, removing explicittargets for social financing or money supply growth, suggesting a policyshift toward optimizing credit structure rather than pursuing broad-basedaggregateexpansion and quantitative target going forward.Looking forward,we expect a 50bp cut in RRRanda 10bp cut in LPRin1Q26followed by an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26. Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analystwho is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately ref