消费污染强度：探索基于109个国家微观数据的环境恩格尔曲线

11266 Pollution Intensity of Consumption Exploring the Environmental Engel CurveBased on Micro-Data from 109 Countries Ebad EbadiJun Rentschleri Planet VerticalOffice of the Chief EconomistDecember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11266 Abstract Environmental Engel curves characterize the relationshipbetween the embodied environmental impact of householdconsumption choices and their respective income levels.Using detailed microdata from 109 countries across allincome levels, this paper studies household expenditureshares on 11 fuel types that differ in their air pollutionintensity. The findings show that wealthier householdstend to shift away from dirty fuels and toward cleaner ones,although this transition is not guaranteed. In low-incomecountries, limited infrastructure and poor access to clean fuels slow this process, demonstrating that income alonecannot drive energy transitions. By documenting system-atic variation in environmental Engel curves across incomegroups and national contexts, the paper emphasizes thejoint role of income growth and infrastructure develop-ment. The analysis also reveals a dual burden of pollutionin which richer households are the primary contributorsto outdoor air pollution, while poorer households remainreliant on polluting fuels that increase their exposure toindoor air pollution. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Pollution Intensity of ConsumptionExploring the Environmental Engel CurveBased on Micro-Data from 109 Countries Ebad Ebadii Jun Rentschleri Keywords:Environmental Engel curves, Air pollution, Household energy consumption, Energytransition JEL codes:Q41, Q53,Q56 1. Introduction Environmental Engel curves (EECs) are a graphical representation utilized in environmentaleconomics to examine the relationship between environmental quality and consumption choices atdifferent income levels. They demonstrate how the environmental impact of consumption changesas income increases. EECs are adapted from the original Engel Curve, which is a graphicalrepresentation of the relationship between the demand for a specific good or service and incomelevels. Typically, EECs are created by plotting the embodied environmental impact of consumption(e.g. in terms air or water pollution, or carbon emissions) on the y-axis, and income on the x-axis.EECs can provide valuable insights into the environmental footprint of consumption choices incertain countries or sectors and can contribute to estimating the effectiveness of pollution controlpolicies and to analyzing the distributional effects of these policies. They can also differ significantlyacross various pollutants and regions, reflecting differences in environmental quality for diversepopulations. EECs can be applied to direct and indirect pollution of households' consumption. Householdsproduce pollution both directly through their activities, such as driving cars, and indirectly as a resultof consuming goods whose production emits pollution, such as the rubber and steel necessary toproduce cars and refining the gasoline needed to drive them. In general, the lack of data has made itchallenging to estimate EECs for direct pollution, let alone for indirect pollution. Detailed data areneeded on households' incomes and consumption patterns. Consumption data needs to go beyondexpenditure, as physical consumption quantities are needed (e.g. liters of gasoline burned), as wellas details on technologies used (e.g. presence of particle filters in cars). These data limitations havemeant that there are few studies empirically documenting EECs, with most of the existing onesfocusing on the United States. Levinson and O'Brien (2019) conducted a study on the United States from 1984 to 2002 to calculatethe direct and indirect pollution caused by household consumption and estimate EECs. They foundthat EECs in the United States are upward sloping, indicating that wealthier households indirectlycontribute to greater pollution. Additionally, EECs have convex shapes and income elasticitiesbelow one. The study also found that EECs have shifted downward over time, with householdpollution levels dropping at every income level – i.e. consumption bundles becoming less pollutingat a