曼谷投资者电话会议要点

Takeaways fromBangkokinvestor call Target PriceUp/DownsideCurrent Price J&T arranged a conference call during the investor dayyesterday(11 Dec)inBangkok, Thailand, to discuss the operation and outlook of Thailand market.After several years of pricing competitionto fence off competitors, J&T hasachieved profitin Thailand since this year. Currently,J&T ranks no. 1 inThailand, with the parcel volumeequal to thetotal volumeof no. 2 to no. 4players.Management is confident ofthegrowth potential in Thailandmarket, interms ofe-commence penetration and per capita parcel volume.ForSoutheastAsia(SEA) marketas a whole, J&T is confident that its parcel volume growth China LogisticsWayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Key takeaways from investor call: Keycustomersin SEA and South America:In SEA, Tik Tok is J&T’slargest customer. In South America andtheMiddle East, Shein is the largest Parcel growth in Thailand:J&T achievedparcel volume CAGR of 40%+over the past three years.J&T currently has 200k customers, including non-e-commerce customers of 20k.By utilising the spare network capacity,J&T Competitive landscapein Thailand:J&T ranks no. 1 in Thailand, with theparcel volume equal to the total volume of no. 2 to no. 4 players. Majorcompetitors includeLazada Logistics and Shopee. J&T believes that given Cost management.J&T has achieved cost reduction of 10% p.a. since2022.J&T mentioned that the use of self-owned truckshashelpedreduce Key risks:1)Higher-than-expected ASP pressure;2)competition in newmarkets. Related reports:J&T Express (BUY)–Parcel growth in SEA further accelerated in 3Q25–14 Oct2025 (link) J&T Express (BUY)–1H25 profit a mixedbag but growth story well intact–1 Sep2025 (link)J&T Express (BUY)–Impressive parcelvolume growth in SEA–9 Jul 2025 (link) Valuation Weapply different EV/EBITDA multiples for different markets to better reflect theirrespective growth outlook.Wemaintainour SOTP-based TPofHK$13.4. SEA:Wemaintainourtarget multipleof14x, which is~80%premium over theglobal integrated logistics operators (7.7x). Ourlarger targetpremium is to reflect China:Wemaintain ourtargetmultiple of 6.5x,in line with the major peers.Weexpect the “anti-involution” campaign will lend support to the valuation. Newmarkets.Wehave leftourtargetmultipleunchanged at20x.Our valuationpremium is to reflect the strong growth potential in the Latin America and the Middle Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analystwho is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personalviews about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of thisreport; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock withpotential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expectedto perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Address:45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a