2025年12月政治局会议联合点评

Policy Readingson the PolitburoMeeting inDecember2025年12月政治局会议联合点评 姜婧Jiang Jing从业资格号Qualification No：F3018552投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013315仲鼎Zhong Ding从业资格号Qualification No：F03107932投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021450王含章Wang Hanzhang从业资格号Qualification No：F03121254投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0022985黄舒瑶Huang Shuyao从业资格号Qualification No：F03108055投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021478甘青Gan Qing从业资格号Qualification No：F03124127投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0023461陈冬科Chen Dongke从业资格号Qualification No：F03124206投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0023470桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z001363 CITIC FuturesInternational Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要Abstract ThePolitical Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Chinaheld a meetingon December 8th to analyze and study economic work for 2026 andthe specific work arrangementswillbe carried out at the Central Economic Work Conference.The tone set by themeeting is relativelypositive, and weremain moderately optimistic aboutcertainequity and commodity assets. Specifically,this Political Bureau meetingoutlined five key points: First,the new work tone emphasizes"coordinating domestic economic operations withresponses to international economic and tradedispute,"highlighting the characteristics of the times. Second, the tone offiscal and monetary policiesfor next year may remainloose and proactive. Third, it reiterates a series of key tasks in the draft of the15th Five-Year Plan, such asexpandingdomestic demand, technological innovation, and "anti-involution",. Fourth, it has a full understanding ofinternal risksand has made corresponding arrangements. Fifth, it adds special work arrangements forlow carbon transformation, which may createincremental demand for new energy-related commodities. This Politburo meeting may have potential impacts onfollowing major assets: Equity Index:rangebound till year endto digest crowded funds;patiently wait for the "springrally" window. Interest Rate:Caution on the long end ofChinagovernment bondsin the short term;the bondmarketmay still be strong and volatilein the medium term. Exchange Rate:The RMB exchange rate in 2026 may show a stable and rising trend. Commodities:New energy demand becomes a highlight. Risks:Inadequate understanding of policies,macro sentiment risks,and overseas risksexceeding expectations. 12月8日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，具体的工作部署在中央经济工作会议展开。本次政治局会议定调偏积极，整体可对权益和部分商品中保持适度乐观。 本次政治局会议的有如下关注点：（1）工作基调新提要“统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争”。（2）明年财政、货币政策的基调或依旧偏宽松、偏积极。（3）再次强调“十五五”规划建议稿中的扩大内需、科技创新、“反内卷”等一系列重点工作，其中“反内卷”工作并未降低力度。（4）对内部风险已有充分认知并做出部署。（5）新增绿色转型专项工作部署，未来或将为新能源相关商品创造增量需求。 本次政治局会议或产生以下潜在影响：（1）股指：年末震荡消化资金拥挤，耐心等待“春躁”窗口；（2）国债：短期国债长端谨慎，中期或仍偏强震荡；（3）汇率：2026年人民币汇率或呈稳中有升局面；（4）大宗商品：新能源需求成为亮点。 风险因素：对政策理解不到位、宏观情绪风险、海外风险超预期 Related Reports相关报告 20251126 China Futures Annual Outlook中国期货2026年度展望 20251030 Policy Readings on the “15th Five-Year Plan” “十五五”规划建议联合点评 20250723 Anti-Involution Policy Reading and Influence on Futures Prices “反内卷”政策对期货价格影响 * Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read historical reports Content目录 1. Macro Economy...........................................................42. Equity Index..............................................................53. Bond and Forex...........................................................64. Commodities..............................................................7Appendix: Chinese Version...................................................9宏观：12月政治局会议的五大关注点............................................9股指：年末震荡消化资金拥挤，耐心等待“春躁”窗口............................11国债与汇率：短期国债长端谨慎，中期或仍偏强震荡，关注人民币升值机会..........12大宗商品：拉动结构分化，新能源需求成为亮点..................................12 1.MacroEconomy On December 8th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party ofChina held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work for 2026.The meeting documentmainlysets the tone fornextyear’score, andthe specific deployment of workwill becarriedout at the Central Economic Work Conference. Overall,the tone set by this Political Bureau meeting is relatively positive. Theoutlookshould still maintainmoderate optimism towards certain sectors inequity and commodityassets.Specifically,this Political Bureau meetinghas outlinedfivekeyfocuses: Focus 1: Themeetingnewly emphasizes "coordinatingdomestic economic operationswith responses to international economic and tradestruggles,"highlighting the characteristicsof the times.We believe this might mean increasingpolicy reserves to cope with external economicand trade risks. Focus 2: The macro policy tone is relatively positive.The meeting proposedto"continue toimplement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, leverage theintegrated effect of existing policies and new policies, and increase the intensity of counter-cyclicaland cross-cycleadjustments."We understand that there are several implications: ①It affirms the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in supporting economicdeve