英伟达激增的现金储备引发投资方向热议

Nvidia’s Mushrooming Cash Pile Spotlights Spending Choices 英伟达激增的现⾦储备引发投资⽅向热议 By⻢丁·⽪尔斯⽂Martin Peers Nvidia’s Takeoff How Nvidia’s growth spurt compares to that of other tech companies at different times in theirhistories All of thebig tech companies have long been cash geysers. But the rate at which Nvidia’s cash production has explodedin the past couple of years is on a whole different level than other companies have experienced. And that’s raisingquestions about how Nvidia will spend its fast-expanding cash pile.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 所有科技巨头长期以来都是现⾦"喷泉"。但英伟达过去⼏年的现⾦创造速度之快，已完全超越其他企业的历史经验。这引发了外界对英伟达将如何运⽤其快速膨胀现⾦储备的疑问。 Nvidia’s free cashflow has mushroomed from $3.8 billion in the year to January 2023 to an estimated $96.5 billion inthe year ending this coming January, a period when its sale of specialized chips for AI took off. That revenue growthrepresents a compound annual growth rate of 194%. A scan of the biggest techfirms’financial history going back to1990 suggests that’s a faster rate of growth than any experienced during any three-year period in that time. The onlyperiod that comes close is Apple’s takeoffin the years immediately after it introduced the iPod in 2001. (See chartabove). 英伟达的⾃由现⾦流已从截⾄2023年1⽉的财政年度的38亿美元激增⾄当前财年（截⾄今年1⽉）预估的965亿美元，这⼀期间正是该公司⼈⼯智能专⽤芯⽚销量猛增的爆发期。这⼀收⼊增长相当于194%的复合年增长率。对⼤型科技公司⾃1990年以来的财务历史回溯显⽰，该增速超越了同期任何企业三年期内实现的增长率。最接近的案例是苹果公司在2001年推出iPod之后的数年爆发期。（参见上⽅图表） Nvidia’s free cashflow is expected to hit $96.5 billion thisfiscal year.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K Analysts project Nvidia will generate $850 billion in cash in the four years through January2030. 分析师预测，截⾄2030年1⽉的四年间，英伟达将产⽣8500亿美元现⾦流。 Nvidia is spending the money by investing in AI and cloudfirms and buying back shares 英伟达正通过投资⼈⼯智能和云计算企业，以及股票回购来⽀配这些资⾦ Powered byDeep Research由深度研究提供⽀持 And with Nvidia’s AI chip sales continuing to grow—revenue rose 62% in the October quarter, the company reportedlast week—its cash production is likely to keep expanding rapidly. In the four years through January 2030, analystsestimate Nvidia will generate a total of about $850 billion in cash, after deducting capital expenditures, data from S&PGlobal Market Intelligence shows. 随着英伟达AI芯⽚销售额持续增长（该公司上周报告10⽉季度营收增长62%），其现⾦⽣成能⼒很可能继续快速扩张。标普全球市场情报数据显⽰，分析师估算扣除资本⽀出后，截⾄2030年1⽉的四年间，英伟达将累计产⽣约8500亿美元现⾦流。 That’s a long period, and much could change. Still, even if Nvidia brought in half that amount, it would represent anenormous improvement on the total of $21 billion the company generated in the four years fromfiscal 2020 throughfiscal 2023.微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 这是个相当长的时间跨度，变数很多。但即便如此，若英伟达最终实现的⾦额仅达到这⼀预测值的⼀半，相⽐该公司2020⾄2023四个财年累计210亿美元的总收⼊⽽⾔，也已是巨⼤飞跃。 Nvidia’s Riches Nvidia’s projected free cash flow The projected total through January 2030 is also significantly more than the free cashflow analysts expect to come fromGoogle, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft in the same period. All four of those companies are ramping up their capitalexpenditures for AI, depressing their free cashflow. They’re all big customers of Nvidia, so we’re seeing a big shift ofwealth from them to the chipmaker. 展望⾄2030年1⽉的现⾦流总额预测值，也⼤幅超过分析师对⾕歌、Meta、亚马逊和微软同期⾃由现⾦流的预估。这四家公司都在加⼤⼈⼯智能领域的资本开⽀，从⽽压缩了⾃由现⾦流。作为英伟达的重要客户群体，我们正⽬睹财富⼤规模向这家芯⽚制造商转移的现象。 The total is also greater than what analysts expect Apple to produce. Apple isn’t investing in AI at anywhere near thesame level as the other companies and generally has relatively low capital expenditures. 这个总⾦额甚⾄超过了分析师对苹果同期现⾦流的预期。苹果在⼈⼯智能领域的投资规模远不及其他科技巨头，且资本⽀出总体维持在较低⽔平。 Being suddenly awash in cash has put the spotlight on what Nvidia is doing with the money. It has unveiled a series ofinvestments in companies that use Nvidia chips—including plans to put $10 billion into Anthropic and $100 billion intoOpenAI—sparking questions about whether Nvidia is trying to increase demand. 突然涌现的⼤量现⾦，让⼈们的⽬光聚焦于英伟达如何使⽤这笔资⾦。该公司已公布对多家使⽤英伟达芯⽚企业的投资计划——包括向Anthropic注资100亿美元、向OpenAI投⼊1000亿美元——这引发了外界对英伟达是否试图刺激市场需求的疑问。 Try askingDeep Research to… 尝试让深度研究... How will AI paying for things change online shopping and banking? ⼈⼯智能⽀付⽅式将如何改变⽹购和银⾏业？ View Response查看回应 It has also invested in newer cloudfirms,such as CoreWeave, which also buy Nvidia chips. Nvidia has gone further insome cases. It said this week it had guaranteed a data center lease for an unidentified cloud company in exchange forstock warrants. The guarantee could make the lease appear less risky for lenders and lower the data center’sfinancingcosts. 该公司还投资了CoreWeave等同样采购英伟达芯⽚的新兴云服务商。在某些案例中，英伟达采取了更深⼊的合作模式。本周其披露为某未具名云企业提供数据中⼼租赁担保，以此换取股票认股权证。该项担保能降低贷款⽅承租风险，从⽽减少数据中⼼的融资成本。 The ChatGPT Effect微信公众号 404K Nvidia’s growth in revenue and free cash flow in the past four years When CEO Jensen Huang was asked about these investments and his spending plans generally on the company’searnings call this past week, he said Nvidia partly would “continue to do stock buybacks.” Spending on buybacks hasalready increased to $36 billion in thefirst three quarters of Nvidia’s currentfiscal year, from $10 billion infiscal 2023. 在最近⼀周的公司