2026年经济展望半杯满

Equity ResearchEconomics December 8, 2025 Richard de Chazal+44 20 7868 4489rdechazal@williamblair.com Louis Mukama+1 312 364 8867lmukama@williamblair.com Contents Closing Out a Year of Heightened Uncertainty, With Rising Growth Prospects..............3Domestic Policy Uncertainty Eases, Foreign Policy Risks Remain Elevated....................4Solid Consumer in 2026 With Help From the OBBB (and Potentially TariffDividend Checks)........................................................................................................6Capex Momentum: More Than Just Data Centers...........................................................12Inflation: The Key Vulnerability in 2026........................................................................14Fed Policy: Less Room to Maneuver Than Market Expects.............................................16Long Rates: Could Be Forced to Take Up the Slack.........................................................17Equity Investment Landscape........................................................................................19Conclusion.......................................................................................................................24 Closing Out a Year of Heightened Uncertainty, With RisingGrowth Prospects One Word to Describe 2025—UncertaintyIt is fair to say that President Trump has been the great “disrupter in chief ” this term. If Presi- dent Clinton was famous for his ability to compartmentalize, President Trump’s innate—andno doubt tactical—ability seems to be to “flood the zone,” in an effort to simultaneously pro-voke and destabilize his opposition. As a result, economic policy gauges of uncertainty (exhibit1) in 2025 are at their highest level since 1900. Thankfully, we believe this uncertainty willdiminish in 2026. So Many Goals, so Little TimeAlthough Trump is a second-term president, there is seemingly a strong sense of urgency to achieve the administration’s goals, and time is fleeting. Those goals still equate to reordering theglobal economic and financial trading system to relevel the playing field; forcing NATO members toaccelerate defense spending in accordance with their agreement; generating peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Trump produced a ceasefire in Israel-Palestine and simmered tensions withIran; lowering government regulation and taxes; increasing energy production; and tighteningborder security to reduce illegal immigration. The president is also attempting to achieve these goals unilaterally by slicing the Gordian knotin unconventional ways, including attempting to squeeze every bit of executive power he can toavoid or circumvent institutional hurdles—so much so that the Supreme Court is now consider-ing whether too much control has been usurped from Congress (i.e., the power to impose taxesand raise revenue). While a negative decision on tariffs for the president would be a setback, it seems his administration will likely find alternatives. The market, however, could view such asetback as a potential positive stimulus for growth—if tariffs were a tax raise, a reversal wouldbe a tax cut. Ironically, Trump seems to have had the least success in the one area that shares the greatestbipartisan support: reducing fraud, waste, and abuse, while reducing the size of the governmentand making it much more efficient. Unfortunately, this has largely been unsuccessful. It was alwaysthe case that if DOGE’s mandate included only discretionary spending—where there was not thatmuch waste to cut—its scope for success was incredibly limited. AI Investment Boom Counters Policy UncertaintyDespite this uncertainty, the financial markets and the aggregate economy have been resilient. Such resiliency, however, was in no small way helped by the unfolding surge in AI-related invest-ment, outside of which capital investment remained weak. The result is that economic growththis past year is expected to have increased by 2.0%, supported by an estimated 2.5% increasein consumer spending and a 4.0% rise in nonresidential business fixed investment. At the time ofwriting, the S&P 500 has risen by 17% year-to-date, though the equal-weighted index is up just9%. Earnings growth this past year is also estimated to have increased by 12%, with more than athird of that increase driven by technology and communication services. Positioned for Economic GrowthLooking toward 2026, despite some mounting trepidation about the labor market, it is quite likely that economic growth will broaden and possibly accelerate, but with the corollary of still high in-flation. Growth will be driven by a combination of fiscal and monetary stimuli; consumer spendingsupported by the benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB); and continuing AI-relatedcapital investment, including in the energy sector. Additional drivers include a manufacturing sec-tor that is emerging from a three-year recession, deregulation across the financial sector and po-tentiall