汇款、汇率和金融发展的作用（英）

John Beirne, Pradeep Panthi, and Guna Raj Bhatta ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Economics Working Paper Series Remittances, Exchange Rates, andthe Role of Financial Development John Beirne (jbeirne@adb.org) is a principal economistat the Economic Research and Development ImpactDepartment, Asian Development Bank. Pradeep Panthi(pradeep.panthi@pri.gov.np) is a research fellow at theCentre for Economic and Infrastructure DevelopmentPolicy, Policy Research Institute, Nepal. Guna RajBhatta (gunaraj@nrb.org.np) is the deputy directorat the Economic Research Department, Nepal RastraBank. John Beirne, Pradeep Panthi,and Guna Raj Bhatta No. 824 | November 2025 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250477-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250477-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of financial development as a buffer for the appreciatingeffects of remittances on exchange rates using annual data from 1996 to 2021 for 146economies, with a focus on 43 high remittance-receiving economies. A panel regressionframework is employed in the baseline analysis, which remains robust to an instrumentalvariables approach. The findings reveal that remittances have appreciating effects on realeffective exchange rates (REER), especially in high remittance-receiving economies,consistent with the “Dutch disease” mechanism. Examining subcomponents of financialdevelopment, we find that stronger domestic financial markets and market-based financialdeepeningare critical channels for absorbing the REER appreciation effects ofremittances. Keywords:remittances, exchange rates, financial development JEL codes:F24, F31, G21, O16 I.INTRODUCTION Although remittance inflows bring multiple socioeconomic benefits to recipient economies,they can also create challenges for macroeconomic stability. As remittance levels surge,concerns can arise regarding the potential disruption of economic equilibria and theimpact on macroeconomic factors. Meanwhile, remittances are becoming a critical sourceofforeign exchange reserves,exceeding traditional sources in many developingeconomies (Adams and Page 2005, Singer 2010). An abundant literature exists on thepotential adverse macroeconomic repercussions of elevated levels of remittances withinthese economies (Acosta, Lartey, and Mandelman 2009; Ratha 2003). One of the keyconcerns arises when remittances are closely linked to macroeconomic and financialstability through exchange rate appreciation (Amuedo-Dorantes and Pozo 2004). This isalso related to the so-called Dutch disease effect,1and the exchange rate appreciationeffects of remittances are widely discussed in the literature (Bourdet and Falck 2007;Acosta, Lartey, and Mandelman 2009;