哥伦比亚劳动力参与情况（英）

Labor Force Participationin Colombia Marco Arena, Camila Casas and Roberto Perrelli SIP/2025/146 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on September 15, 2025. This paperis also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/281. 2025NOV IMF Selected Issues Paper Western Hemisphere Department Labor Force Participation in ColombiaPrepared by Marco Arena, Camila Casas and Roberto Perrelli* Authorized for distribution by Ding DingNovember2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on September 15, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/281. ABSTRACT:Colombia’s labor force participation (LFP) showed a steady and gradual decline for both men andwomen between 2012 and 2019, which contrasts with rising LFP in regional peers. This paper assesses thefactors behind LFP dynamics in Colombia to inform policy options for boosting participation and supportingColombia’s long-term growth, against the headwinds from slowing birthrates and population aging. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Arena, Marco, Camila Casas, and Roberto Perrelli, 2025. “Labor ForceParticipation in Colombia”. IMF Selected Issues Paper SIP/2025/146. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Labor Force Participation inColombia Colombia Prepared by Marco Arena, Camila Casas and Roberto Perrelli1 COLOMBIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByWestern HemisphereDepartment Prepared by Marco Arena,Camila Casasand Roberto Perrelli(WHD). CONTENTS LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN COLOMBIA _____________________________________ 2 FIGURES 1. Labor Force Participation by Gender and Age, 1960-2023 ___________________________22. Cross-Country Comparison Labor Force Participation________________________________33. Labor Growth, 2000-19_______________________________________________________________44. Drivers of Probability of Participating in the Labor Force, 2023 ______________________65. Drivers of Probability of Participating in the Labor Force, 2023 ______________________76. Labor Contribution to Long-Term Growth: A Counterfactual Analysis ________________7 TABLE 1. Drivers of Probability of Participating in the Labor Force, 2013-19 ___________________5 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN COLOMBIA1 Colombia’s labor force participation (LFP) showed a steady and gradual decline for both men andwomen between 2012 and 2019, which contrasts with rising LFP in regional peers. This paper assessesthe factors behind LFP dynamics in Colombia to inform policy options for boosting participation andsupporting Colombia’s long-term growth, against the headwinds from slowing birthratesandpopulation aging. Background 1.Colombia has experienced a gradual decline in labor force participation (LFP) over thelast decade, especially among women.Colombia’s LFP rose from less than 50 percent of theworking-age population in the 1950s to 68 percent in 2010-12. Since then, it has declined to around63 percent. While Colombia’s male LFP has oscillated around 80 percent, its female LFP rose from12 percent in the 1960s to 55 percent in the middle of last decade, falling to 52 percent since then.These patterns are even more noticeable when assessed in terms of prime working age population(Figure 1, Panel A). Moreover, female LFP starts to drop sharply at 45-49 years old—or 10 yearsearlier than male LFP (Figure 1, Panel B). 2.While declines in LFP coincided with the escalation of Venezuelan migration toColombia, the latter does not seem to fully explain it. While the large influx of people may becorrelated with labor market outcomes, it is unlikely that migration can fully explain the observeddrop in Colombia’s LFP. Exploiting cross-regional information, Alvarez and others (2022) find thatregions with greater migration inflows did not experience larger declines in (male or female) laborforce participation rates. Moreover, Bahar and others (2021) do not find a significant effect of an increase in the number of residency permit (Permiso Especial de Permanencia, PEP) holders on thelabor force. Bonilla and others (2024) find a causal and negative effect of migration on theprobability of participation in the labor force, but the reduction is small (0.3 percentage points).Given these findings in the literature, we explore other potential reasons that can explain declines inLFP. Understanding Colombia’s persistent gender gaps in LFP is a critical aspect of this 3.puzzle. At almost 25 percent, Colombia’s current gender gap in LFP was second only to Mexico,which has also seen a faster and more dramatic reduction in the LFP gap since 2000.2Latin Americanpeers, like Peru and Uruguay, presented gender gaps around 14-15 ppts, not far from the averagegender gap found among advanced ec