核心焦点与主题：2026年四大关键事件及外汇/利率交易

Forelgn Exchange - Asla ex-JapaniEuro AreaEurop Fourkeyupcoming events and ourFX/ratestrades into2026 Research Analysts Global FX Strategy Craig Chan - NSLcraig.chan(@nomura.com9019 +9 99+ IF DxY were to break higher or lower from recent ranges in the next six months, whatiweA inof eq pinom 1. WEAKER by more than 5%2. WEAKER by 2-5%3. STRONGER by 2-5%4. STRONGER by more than 5% Yujiro Goto - NSCyujiro.gotc@nomure.com+81 3 6703 1120 Dominic Bunning - Nlplcdominic.bunning(@ncmura.com+44 (0) 20 7102 4063 Wee Choon Teo - NSLwe6croon.teo@nomurs.com+65 6433 6107 The first three key events early next week (i.e., 9 December) are likely to support asofter USD. The fourth event is the FOMC (10 December, EST), and although it couldhave a limited FX impact, it is still a key event to watch, given the focus on the dot plotand Powell's pcst-conference rhetoric Yusuke Miyairi. CFA - Nlplcyusuke.miyairi@numura.com+44 (0) 20 7102 4145 G10 FX: We stay long NZD and AUD versus USD (conviction levels of 4/5 and 3/5,grind in our favour, while GBP shorts may see a further redluction. Vicky Chen - NSLicky.chen1gnomura.com+86 6433 6540 Manthan Shingala - NSLmanthan.shingala1@nomura.com9 9 99+ Asia FX: We raised the conviction levels on our long EUR/INR to the maximum 5/5(from 4) and our short SGD/JPY to 4/5 (from 3). We maintain our short SGD/CNH(3/5) and medium-tem short USD/TWD (3/5) positions. Asia Rates Strategy Asia rates: We maintain conviction levels of 4/5 in pay Mar-5y HK and pay Mar-2ySGD. We also raised conviction level of pay Dec-5y China to 4/5 (from 3) onThursday. Albert Leung - NIHKalbart.l6ung1@gnomura.com+862 2252 1401 Nathan Sribalasundaram - NSLnathan.sribslasundaram(enumura.ccm2026 *9 99+ Clalr Gao, CFA - NIHKdlal.gaagnamura.com+852 2252 1091 Australia/New Zealand RatesStrategy Andrew Ticehurst- NALandrew.ticahursttromura.com+61 2 8062 8811 In the week ahead, there are a few key focus points. At least before the December FOMCmeeting (10 December EST), we see three key events that should be supportive of asofter USD. These include: 1) the RBA meeting (11:30am SGT, 9 December), in whichwe expect the RBA to leave policy rates unchanged but also sound more hawkish, given Frod,rlon Corrplels: 2325-12-65 10 51 UTC recent data; 2) BOJ Uedla's speech at FT's Global Boardroom Conference in London (9December. Ueda is scheduled to discuss 'the return of positive inflation and rising interestrates... and the external value of the yen'; and 3) National Economic Council DirectorKevin Hasset's comments st a WSJ CEO council summit (9 December, 9.25am EST), atwhich he willikely sound dovish as he explsins “President Trump's economic agenda". The key event later in the week will be the FOMC decision (10 December, EST), theFOMC median dot and Powell's press briefing. The market appears to expect a 25bp rstecut at this meeting, while the Fed's rhetoric could suggest the January FOMC is likely tobe a hold, and that the March decision will be data dependent. The new median dot for2026 could come in at 3.125% (i.e., 25bp below current 3.375%) with the 2027 dotunchanged (i.e., at 3.125%). This scenario should have a limited impact on USD, giventhe current market pricing for a 91% likelihood of a 25bp cut in December, a ~60%policy rate of 3.04%. As for our strategy trades, we re-emphasize our Asia FX/rafes outlook 2026 SGD/JPY; long NZD/USD; short USD/TWD; pay Mar-5y HK; pay Mar-2y SGD; and anAUD 2s10s flattener. USD may be quite stable into Q1 2026, but we see several potentialtriggers for a weaker USD, including: 1) elevated foreign positioning in US porfolio assetsand still cautious allocations to US markets, cespite the strong equity rally. We areconcerned that, if our optimism on the near-term US macro outlook is misplaced or if USequities correct lower on stretchec valuations; 2) broad UsD seiling FX hedging activitywillikely materialise on any initial cowntrend in USD; 3) private sector non-financiai debnsks ; 4j the US Supreme Court, which is set to rule on Trump s tariffs; 5) the potential re-emergence of Fed independence concerms; 6) a de-escalation of US-China tracie tensions(for now) and RMB appreciation; and 7) a Russis-Ukraine peace deal. In other parts ofG10 FX, we rermain long AUD/USD (conviction level 3/5) and short NOK/SEK (convictionlevel 3/5). G10 FX strategy JPY: Terminal rate ultimately more important than December hike for JPY BO Governor Ueda's 1 December speech cieany hinted at a rate-hike discussion af theDocember mooting , and the JPY depreciation pressure this week has eased. Witngrowing expectations for an additional Fed cut at next week's December FOMC, USDrJPYbriefly fell below 155. Attention wil be paid to the median dot and Chair Powell's stance onfurther cuts in 2026 at the FOMC mceting next week, wnile the impact of any hawkishcomnunication on USD/JPY should be limited, as expectafions for a dovish shift by theFed under the new Chair would undermine the efficacy of the fo