2025年第三季度新兴技术指标报告：顶级风投机构正重仓布局AI与工业科技

EMERGING TECH RESEARCH Emerging TechIndicator Top VC firms are betting big on AI and industrial tech Contents Key takeaways3 Institutional Research Group Introduction4 Analysis Deal activity5 Ben RiccioAssociate Research Analystben.riccio@pitchbook.com Areas of investment7 ETI deal segment spotlights 12 Data AI13 Matthew NacionalesSenior Data Analyst Industrial tech pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com PublishingReport designed byAdriana HansenPublished on December 1, 2025 Other notable activity 31 Venture activity summary32 ETIinvestor ranking36 Note: Data from prior quarters has been revised from the previous ETI reportto reflect the latest funding data available. Key takeaways •Early-stage rounds grow as transaction counts fall:ETI funding (pre-seed, seed, and early-stage deals involving the top 15 VC firms) reached $6.1 billion across 215 deals in Q3. Whiledeal count dropped 22.5% on a TTM basis, total capital deployed remained stable. As a result,ETI startups are now seeing elevated deal sizes and valuations compared with the rest of theventure ecosystem. •AI remains on top:AI remained the leading ETI vertical for the seventh consecutive quarter,attracting $2.2 billion across 52 deals. Additionally, 72 deals went to AI applications in otherverticals, underscoring a continuing shift in early-stage AI investing from horizontal platformstoward the application layer. Together, these figures represent 60.7% of total investment and57.7% of total ETI deals closed in the Q3. •Geopolitical tailwinds drive record investment in industrial tech:Industrial tech explodedto a record $782.4 million and 17 deals in the quarter. With expanding defense budgets and astrong focus on domestic production in the US, top investors are prioritizing a historically minorarea of VC investment—jumping from just 2% of 2024 investment to 6.7% in 2025. Top dealsincluded hypersonic weapons manufacturer Castelion and vertically integrated mining companyMariana Minerals •A competitive early-stage environment favors top investors:With investment consolidating infewer, larger deals, top investors are playing an outsized role in early-stage investing. As thesefirms typically have expanded access to competitive, large-scale financings, ETI investment iscommanding an elevated share of total venture dollars deployed in pre-seed, seed, and early-stage rounds, capturing 21% YTD compared with the 2021-2024 annual average of 14.4%. Introduction The Emerging Tech Indicator (ETI) provides a quarterly review of pre-seed, seed, and early-stageinvestment activity involving a limited subset of the world’s most successful VC firms that accountfor roughly 10% of total VC investment. The analysis provides a unique perspective into the typesof technologies that top investors view as the most promising while also tracking how aggressivelythese investors are making capital allocation decisions. In the third quarter of 2025, we tracked 215 pre-seed, seed, and early-stage VC deals that involvedthe top 15 VC firms (relative to 5,516 total pre-seed, seed, and early-stage VC deals). These firmsare determined each quarter based on the success of their investments over time in terms of bothexits and valuations.1As shown in the charts on the right, ETI startups identified via our top 15investor methodology have outperformed the broader VC industry, exhibiting higher exit rates andvaluations. This report reviews the products and technology being developed by ETI startups. Disclaimer: Data from the ETI report represents a snapshot of venture activity at a certain pointin time. Historical datasets are continuously being adjusted to incorporate new informationas we collect it, complicating efforts to compare the current ETI dataset with previouslypublished reports. Deal activity In Q3, ETI deal activity totaled $6.1 billion across 215 deals. Deal counts remain flat QoQ, whiletotal investment increased 3.2% when excluding the combined $4 billion in seed rounds for SafeSuperintelligence and Thinking Machines Lab in Q2. Top investors continued to close far fewerseed and early-stage deals than in prior years, with Q3’s total representing a 31.6% decline fromthe 2021-2024 quarterly average of 316. At the same time, ETI deal value increased sharply, evenwhen excluding multibillion-dollar outlier rounds for foundation model developers. Total ETI dealvalue rose 34.1% on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis and is on pace to end the year at $29.2 billion,approaching the 2021 peak of $32 billion. Top investors are opting for larger early-stage bets,significantly increasing deal sizes and valuations as near-peak levels of capital are deployed acrossreduced transaction volumes. This trend reflects a broader shift in the role of venture’s largest investors in the early-stageinvesting environment. As valuations and deal sizes grow, early-stage investing has become morecompetitive and expensive. Large, multistage investors that can afford these increased