亚洲工业科技与亚洲新兴机器人：人形机器人：迈向年出货量百万台之路

Humanoid Robotics: The path to 1 million annual shipment Humanoid robot performance continues to impress (Asia Emerging Robotics: Key surprisesfrom the 2026 Spring Festival Gala), but investors also continue to challenge its actualuse and path to commercialization. We see 2025-2026 as an exciting milestone, whenhumanoid robot killer applications start to emerge. Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Asolid foundationof commercialization is the development of VLA and perfection oflocomotion. Important progresses in 2025 included: (1) high dynamic full-body controlby bridging motion tracking and sim-to-real, (2) from locomotion to loco-manipulation(see here), and (3) vision-guided perceptive motion, liberating robots from pre-definedmotion sequences (Exhibit 3). On the commercial side, humanoid robots have becomemore accessible to the public (Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 5). For example, a leasing ecosystemfor humanoid robots begun to emerge (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7). This allows more users toactively explore commercial potential on their own. Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com The missing layer in the humanoid ecosystem. For industrial robots, dedicatedsystem integrators link robot suppliers with end-users by delivering turnkey solutions.For humanoid robots, a similar layer is needed for application development, training, anddeployment, but remains largely missing (Exhibit 8). We expect this layer to soon emergeand drive scalable commercialization. Technically feasible applications in five years. Humanoid robot applications can besegmented by task complexity and environmental complexity (Exhibit 1). Performing simpletasks in controlled environments (e.g., entertainment, R&D, education) is thelow‑hangingfruit already commercialized. In this framework, in the next 1–3 years, we expect newapplications in two distinct directions: (1) “forward”, to higher task complexity while theenvironment remains controlled, such as material handling in factories and warehouses and(2) “upward”, to higher environmental complexity and low task complexity, such as patroland facility inspection. In 3–5 years, we hope to see the coupling of the two directions andnew applications such as hotel room servicing and last mile delivery. These applicationsshow good potential across a broad set of scenarios (Exhibit 2). Killer applications and TAM benchmarks. We identify three groups of applicationsthat can be technically ready in the near term and scaled up rapidly by system integrators(Exhibit 9): 1)Value from robotic mobility(e.g., entertainment, education, R&D). A usefulbenchmark is Apple’s Vision Pro (annual shipments ~400k units), with overlapping usescenarios. 2)Value from mobility + perception(e.g., patrol, guard, facility inspection).Security service workforce serves as the addressable market for this segment (>16 millionworldwide, the figure representing long-term potential installed base rather than annualshipments). 3)Material handling in controlled environments. Forklift is an appropriatebenchmark for this category (annual shipments ~2.2 million units). Within this broadcategory, applications are likely to progress from material transporting (e.g. carrying boxes),to loading / unloading, and finally to sorting of mixed items. The total potential benchmarksof the three categories amount to 4-6 million units p.a. Considering a gradual adoptioncurve, these benchmarks are consistent with our forecast of humanoid robot shipmentsreaching 1 million units by 2031 (Exhibit 10). DETAILS EXHIBIT 3:Important recent progresses of humanoid robots: 1) high dynamic full-body control, 2) loco-manipulation, and 3) vision-guided perceptive motion Source: Unitree, CCTV, Figure, LimX Dynamics, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 4:Humanoid robot shipment breakdown by application Source: China Humanoid Robot Scene Application Alliance, Bernstein analysis Source: Unitree, FANUC, Inovance, Shuanghuan, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 10:Our forecast for the global annual shipment volume of humanoid robots INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Shuanghuan, Hesai, Tuopu, Inovance, Harmonic Drive Outperform, Sanhua Market-Perform, and Leader Drive BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherw