亚洲新兴机器人：拥抱人形机器人时代——首次覆盖双环、禾赛、拓普、三花和绿的谐波

Asia Emerging Robotics: Embrace the Humanoid Era - InitiatingCoverage of Shuanghuan, Hesai, Tuopu, Sanhua and Leader Drive We initiate coverage of Asia Emerging Robotics, embracing the promising future of humanoidrobots and the broad robotic theme. To invest in the early-stage and fast-evolving humanoidindustry, the overarching theme is: Make No Bet. Companies are better off with exposure tobroad robotics (not limited to the humanoid), broad customer base, and the agility to adaptto a broad range of technology paths.We rate Shuanghuan, Hesai and Tuopu Outperform,Sanhua Market-Perform and Leader Drive Underperform. Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com The humanoid era.Advancements in AI have brought humanoid robots to an inflectionpoint (Exhibit 7), sparking hopes of automating labor-intensive tasks. We forecast theindustry to grow50-foldin each of the two phases (Exhibit 8), i.e. annual shipment toreach~1 million unitsby 2031 (TAM: ~USD20bn) and~50 million unitsby 2050 (TAM:~USD800bn), when the industry becomes comparable to automotive in scale. Over the nextfew years, increasing adoption of humanoid robots is likely to be driven by replicating thesuccess in specific tasks (e.g. "pick and place"). As robotic intelligence evolves, humanoidrobots may progressively handle more generalized tasks, initially within specific settings(2030+) and later in more generalized environments (2035+). Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Bullish on China.Humanoid robot is emerging as a new technology battlefield betweenChina and the West. We are bullish on China, where “realists” prioritize practical solutions,while Western “futurists” pursue ideal robots, a pattern also seen in autonomous driving(Exhibit 11, Exhibit 118 and Exhibit 119). For emerging tech, China’s distinct advantage liesin rapid product iteration, a broad initial user base and well-established supply chain. As aresult, our expectation for theTesla robotis well below the targets (Exhibit 121). In the verylong term, we are optimistic that Tesla robot to outperform other Western players. Investment approach.When investing in the early-stage and fast-evolving humanoidindustry, we recommend targeting companies with the following characteristics (Exhibit9): 1)Upstream winners, as downstream victors are too early to identify (Exhibit 23to Exhibit 25); 2)Exposure to broad robotics beyond the humanoid, including butnot limited to special-purpose robots, industrial robots, and robotic dogs (Exhibit 26 toExhibit 30); 3)Proven success in expertise expansion, which is essential for adaptingto evolving humanoid technologies (Exhibit 31 to Exhibit 34); and 4)High-quality corebusinesses, to provide sustainable cash flows and support reasonable valuations in thenear to medium term. In our coverage,Shuanghuan (OP)matches our investment criteriathe best, followed byHesai (OP)andTuopu (OP). We recommend component suppliers with solid core businesses and a strong start inemerging robotics, includingShuanghuan(a global leader in gears & reducers),Hesai(a global frontrunner in “laser eyes”), andTuopu(an auto parts leader with expandingcapabilities). We are neutral onSanhuadue to its limited robotics experience and relativelyconcentrated expertise. Negative onLeader Drivegiven our concerns over its long termmarket share and margins. For theTesla supply chain, e.g. Tuopu and Sanhua, we seetrading opportunities by tracking industry events (Exhibit 123) and assessing valuationpremiums (Exhibit 124 and Exhibit 150). Table Of Contents The investment case in brief................................................................................................................................................................................................2Humanoid robot: Where it stands and where it is heading.......................................................................................................................................9Humanoid robot: Distinctive characteristics and investment strategy...............................................................................................................15Shuanghuan (Outperform): A global leader in gears & reducers, ready for the emerging robot revolution........................................... 25Hesai (Outperform): A global leader in "laser eyes," powering perception for robotics and vehicles.......................................................39Tuopu (Outperform): Tesla Bot Play; Beneficiary of booming electric and intelligent vehicles...................................................................56Sanhua (Market-Perform): Tesla robot play; High-quality core business but limited expansion potential..............................................73Leader Drive (Underperform): First mover ≠ Sustainable winner.......................................................................................................