资金流向观察

ypertension 06 November 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 52.3%, stocks 20.5%, bitcoin 10.4%, IG bonds 9.1%, HYbonds 8.9%, commods 6.4%, govt bonds 6.1%, cash 3.6%, USD -8.0%, oil -16.3% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Crystal clear that for now market can’t handle higher yields and US dollar.” Zeitgeist:“You know Fed will be buying AI hyperscaler bonds when they next do QE.” Zeitgeist:“Elections have consequences, so maybe affordability anger on Main Sttelling Wall St you can’t run it hot, that higher stocks may mean lower votes.” The Biggest Picture: Trump approval rating 43% (Chart 2–41% on economy, 36%1oninflation); politically imperative in’26 that inflation and budget deficits under control… Michael HartnettInvestmentStrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Price is Right: so long as credit spreads, banks, broker-dealers don’t break bad (i.e.,IG CDX >75bp, BKX <140, XBD <950) asset allocators likely to ignore recent“peak”easyfinancial conditions“tell”from crypto, gold, subprime tech; still PE & BDCs can’t shake Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: wider AI hyperscaler bond spreads catching eyes, but equity tape ofhousing, retail, packaging, REITs, small cap borderline recessionary; if Fed cutting intore-acceleration these Main St cyclicals a steal; but if they can’t catch tells you Fed Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com behind-curve, employment trumping rates, US tax cuts more likely saved than spent. Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofA More on page 2… Real Clear Politics Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorbany losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules. See page 9 for a glossary of acronyms andother abbreviations. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Weekly Flows: $117.3bn to cash (2ndlargest inflow YTD), $39.4bn to stocks, $18.8bn to bonds, $0.4bn from gold, $1.9bn from crypto.Flows to Know: IG bonds: 28thweek of inflows ($14.9bn); US equities: 8thweek of inflows, longest streak since Dec'24 ($19.6bn this week); Japan equities: biggest 2-week inflow since May'24 ($7.5bn);China equities: 3rdbiggest inflow of '25 ($9.1bn); Korea equities: 2ndbiggest inflow of '25 ($1.1bn); Europe equities: biggest outflow since Aug'25 ($1.7bn);Tech: biggest 2-month inflow ever ($36.5bn); BofA Private Clients: $4.3tn AUM…64.9% stocks (highest since Mar’22), 17.8% bonds(lowest since Apr’22), 10.1% cash (lowest since Sep’18); private clients selling stockspast 8 weeks at fastest pace in a year ($12bn outflow), bond buying annualizing $30bninflow; in ETFs past 4 weeks, private clients buying Japan, IG & HY bonds, and selling BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: rises to 6.4 from 6.3 on strong inflows to EM stocks,better credit market technicals, low FMS cash (3.8%), offsetting HY bond outflows andbearish hedge fund positioning (record 10-year UST longs via futures). On Price:“tops are a process, lows are a moment”; rates falling, EPS rising, AI bubbling,expectation of Trump/Fed/Gen-Z puts…what’s not to love; still 2ndderivative of global interest rate cut frenzy rolling over (80 rate cuts next year vs >150 in‘25), and elections,employment, AI bonds…bulls less conspicuous, more circumspect… On Elections: blue states but Nov elections saw Dems win big in CA (64-36%), VA (57-42%), NJ (56-43%), NYC (50-42%) with“affordability”#1 voter issue everywhere; easyto overinterpret, but booms & bubbles rarely optimal way to reduce inflation &inequality, and booms & bubbles what market has been frontrunning; we expect deeperUS government intervention (“invisible hand to visible fist”theme–Chart 5) to directly control prices/boost supply in energy, healthcare, housing, and soon utilities (on AI-soari