借调人员的崛起——以及超过2000亿美元的推动

INVESTMENT BANKING Secondaries’ Rise—and the Push to Surpass$200 Billion The secondary market seems poised to zoom past initial targetsby the time 2025 ends and to set another record. More growth is Authors secondaries’ strong position in an era of relative macro volatility that has slowedM&A and IPO markets. Those markets have improved, but funds facing pressureto generate liquidity are increasingly turning to secondaries while secondary Mike Custar+1 332 262 2551mcustar@williamblair.com Quinn Kolberg+1 332 262 2550qkolberg@williamblair.com Global Secondary Market Volume ($ in Billions)1 Dan DiSalvio+1 332 262 2611ddisalvio@williamblair.com Tom Marking+1 332 262 2554tmarking@williamblair.com Kyle McManus+1 212 237 2706kmcmanus@williamblair.com Tim-Oliver Seidel+44 20 7297 4750toseidel@williamblair.com in 2026.2Now, with just weeks remaining in 2025, we can reflect on a few themes ofthe past year: Jake Stuiver+1 332 262 2577jstuiver@williamblair.com •Last spring’s tariff shocks didn’t create a sustained pullback. GPs’ and LPs’growing acceptance of secondaries and investor appetite proved durable,with the market pushing record levels in the first half and surging further in •The capital formation story is quickly accelerating as investors jockey forposition in a growing market. Newcomers and incumbents continue to vie forcapital in an ever-competitive environment. 1.William Blair Estimates, 2025 William BlairSecondary Market Survey. Total percentages inchart may not foot due to rounding.2.Source: William Blair Estimates.3.Source: White House Presidential Actions:Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets •President Trump’s August executive order3to allow 401(k)s to invest inprivate funds is a likely driver for future growth in secondaries, as we noted in William Blair’s 2025 Secondary Market Report. At this stage, it’s too early tomeasure the impact. Strong Year for LP-Leds—and Some Lessons a busy summer and fall. But the months after “Liberation Day” provide lessonsabout our era of extreme pricing fluidity. Pent-up activity surged into the market in early July and combined with thetransactions that would have likely happened at that time anyway. One resultwas a great deal of pricing movement in July and August. That is a more commonoccurrence in the market of late and it shows the importance of working with We would now characterize sellers as a bit more motivated than they were inSeptember (see chart). A mid-October spate of launches portends a flurry of year-end sales, fueled by hefty secondary fundraising. Understanding Secondary Market Pricing4Seller motivation improved throughout 2025’s second half and October saw a spate of launches in a good sign for more activity. Each move to the right on thechart below represents an increase of approximately 300 basis points. DistressedSellersHighlyMotivatedSellersMotivated Strong Year for LP-Leds—andSome Lessons motivations (fund-of-funds winding down or creating liquidity events, activeportfolio management), from all geographies (significant volume from sellers inNorth America, Europe, and Asia). Interest in credit secondaries increased fromtop buyers, in line with the growth of the primary direct-lending fund market. Following Strong Multi-Asset Volumes, a Single-AssetResurgence Looks Likely a steady rise of multi-asset continuation fund transactions aimed at improvingDPI—a persistent theme nearly five years after 2021’s fundraising peak. Multi-asset continuation funds remain popular because they efficiently enhance fund Multi-asset volume was robust in 2024 and 2025’s first half. We expect that to bebalanced by more single-asset transactions based on increased market activityin the second half of 2025 and with deals launched in recent months fuelingsingle-asset volume growth in the first half of 2026. Many new entrants from thedirect buyout community have publicly charted such a course, structuring their capital is also playing a major part in investors growing their check sizes, which incombination with previously mentioned drivers is reducing perceived syndicationrisk. Moreover, the number of investors able to write checks greater than $500million is steadily growing, further limiting any perceptions of possible hungtransactions. strong run this decade, there appears to be room for continued growth.Despite the strong showing in recent years, only a small percentage of LPs are aware of or active in LP-led secondaries. But secondaries’ potential as a tool inactive portfolio management—and not their dated and misplaced reputationas a haven for distressed LPs—gains ground every time a high-profile dealis announced. Simultaneously, the GP-led market has continued to prove itsutility and as more investors enter the fold and LPs grow only more acceptingof the technology we should see more of the steady increase in pacing that has All of this said, the secondary market is growing but small relative to the globalM&A market. More capi