2025德勤假日零售调查：情绪高涨，钱包紧张

Spirits bright, wallets tight Table ofcontents 3Authors 6Cheat sheet 4Executive summary 7Survey findings 5Holiday highlights Authors Natalie Martini Lupine Skelly Vice chair, US retail andconsumer products sector leaderDeloitte & Touche LLPnmartini@deloitte.com Retail research leaderRetail, wholesale, and distributionConsumer Industry CenterDeloitte Services LPlskelly@deloitte.com Brian McCarthy Kusum ManojRaimalaniSenior analyst PrincipalRetail, wholesale, and distribution,and consumer productsDeloitte Consulting LLPbrimccarthy@deloitte.com Retail, wholesale, and distributionConsumer Industry CenterDeloitte Support Services IndiaPvt. Ltd.kraimalani@deloitte.com Stephen RogersExecutive director Consumer Industry CenterDeloitte Services LPstephenrogers@deloitte.com 2025 marks our 40th year gathering holiday insights, andtheretail transformation over that time has beenremarkable. Holiday shopping has shifted from crowdedmallsand print circulars to a world of omnichannelconvenience, digital discovery, and artificial intelligence–powered tools. Yet one constant remains: The holidays arewhen consumer behavior reflects both the realities of theeconomy and the desire to celebrate. Younger generations, particularly Generation Z, appearto be reshaping how holiday shopping happens. Notonly are they more likely to seek deals (95%), butthey’re also turning to social media (74%), AI (43%), andinfluencers for inspiration and product discovery, andare using digital tools to find the best prices. Thisseason, they’re planning to spend 34% less than lastyear, which means it will likely be important to provideshopping experiences that are entertaining, authentic,and seamlessly integrated into the platforms wherethey already spend time. Executivesummary This year,the season is unfolding against a backdropofeconomic uncertainty.Three-quarters of surveyedshoppers (77%) expect higher prices on holiday goods, andover half (57%) expect the economy to weaken in the nextsix months—the most negative outlook since we startedtrackingeconomic sentiment in 1997.Many shoppersacross all income groups remain highly attuned to value,with promotions and deals shaping when and where theyspend. But it’s not just about price. As noted in our recentreport “The value-seeking consumer,”surveyed shoppersalsoreport seeking quality,trust,and meaningfulexperiences from the brands they choose. Retailers thatcan provide high value at both low and high price pointsthis holiday season may be best positioned to attract valueseekers. Forretailers,this holiday season isn’t just aboutoffering deals; it’s about meeting shoppers where theyare (digitally, socially, and emotionally). Winners willlikely be those who stand out by providing value,offering seamless technology to reduce friction, anddelivering experiences that feel worth the spend. Fortyyears on, holiday shopping keeps evolving, but themagic of connection and celebration never fades. Spirits bright, wallets tight$1,595average expected holidayspend, versus $1,778 in 2024,down 10% YoY Holidayhighlights Deals still drive the sleigh7 in 10respondents across allincome groups areengaging in three or moredeal-seeking behaviors of surveyed shoppers plan to usegenerative AI in their shoppingjourney, more than double the2024 figure (15%) Cheat sheet Shopping journey Spending trends Consumer preferences Consumers plan tospend an average of $1,595, down10% year over year, as they prepare for higher pricesand an economic slowdown. 1 in 5plan tostart shopping earliercompared to lastyear, driven by the need to spread out purchases andmanage personal finances. Across all income groups,at least 7 in 10 engage inthree or more value-seeking behaviors, withwomen(78%)significantly more likely thanmen (58%)to doso. The average expected spend on retail categories($902 in 2025 versus $1,043 in 2024) isseeing asteeper decline than experiences($694 in 2025versus $735 in 2024). 4 in 10surveyed plan toshop during the promotionalevents in October, same as 2024. 50% of holiday shoppersplan tospend mostof theirbudget atonline retailers or mass merchantretailers. Shopping trafficis likely to peak betweenlateNovember (77% active shoppers) and early December(76%). 77% expect higher priceson holiday items (versus69% in 2024), and57% expect the economy toweakenin the next year (versus 30% in 2024). 26% plan to use loyalty points(versus 20% in 2024),as they rely more on rewards to ease holiday expensesamid financial challenges. 70%shoppers plan toshop during the Thanksgivingweek(versus 68% in 2024), with the $100K to $199Kincome group indicating the highest Intent to participate(77%). 56% are concernedabout apotential recessioninthe next six months. 64% like getting gifts from a wish listbecause theyare certain they will use them (72% among Gen Z). 68% plan to use digital tools(for example, socialmedia, gen AI, price comparison, and chatbots) forholiday shopping. Economic pressures are pushingGen