2026年度展望：政策刺激与贸易摩擦为稳增长关键变量

2026 Year Ahead: Policy stimulus and tradeconflict holdthekeyto stablegrowth 24 November 2025 Domestic demand softened but supply growth held up GEM EconomicsAsia I China (especlally Investment) since June, Q3 GDP growth surprlsed on the upslde at 4.8% yoy.helped by strong exports. The recent macro developiment aligns wit1 our differentiatedview that growth will muddle through without immediate help from policy stimulus (seereport: China Vlewpoint), except that headline growth rate exceeded our forecasts by asmall margin. With the Oct-end Trump-Xi meeting setting a more positive tone on US-China trade for the next 12 months (see report: Xi-Trump), risks are skewed to theupslde to our existing growth forecasts for 202627. We upgrade China GDP growth1forecasts to 5.0% for 2025, 4.7% for 2026, and 4.5% for 2027 (from 4.7%, 4.3% and4.1% prevlouslyl. Helen QiaoChira & Asis Etoncmisthelen.cjacopbcta.com Xlaoqing PIemter ChiruFctrnm+852 3408 658.8U0Y 2.0Hxiacqing.sictofa.cem Benson Wu, CFAHong Kongtbcnson.wupbofa.com A widening supply-demand gap weighs on inflation Meanwhile, deflationary pressure persists, as supply growth outstrips dcrnestic derandgrowth by an increasingly wider rmargin, Even though the *anti-imvolution tampaign* haslifted inflation expectation in sectors suffering from severe overcapacity, broad-baseddermand weakness still weigh on inflation heavily. We revise our CPl inflation forecast to-0.1% for 2025 and 0 for 2026, with seasonially adjusted sequential growvth expected toremain negative in 4Q25 and 1Q25. Anna Zhouhir& Asia Ftnm-852 3508 3509Meill L>nch :uOY 2LOHuozeoqotno.gu.c Yvomme HePOES.BOSECSB+wonne.hebofa.com Fiscal and quasi-fiscal tools to boost investment demand The good news is some policy stimulus is on the way. China deployed as much aspolicy banks. This will elable local governments to replenish equity of infrastructureinvestment projects, and leverage more thrcugh bank loans. In addition, the governmentalso frontloaded local government bond quota by RMB50Obn, lifting credit demand forthe rest of the year. We expect these measures to boost Infrastructure fixed-assetinvestment and lift domestic cemand in 4Q25 and 1Q26. LG53: Locel gevemment special purpesed bond FYP: Fie-Year Plan FAI fixed-asset Irestmen: Policy stimulus to step up in 1H26 to reach growth target Policy stimulus will help support growth to stabilize at around 4.5%, but more easing willbe needed against a high base, especially in 1HZ5. We expect policy makers to gravitatetowards rnore easing rneasures to boost ciornestir derniand in late-1Q76 anid early 7Q75These measures include, but are not limited to, policy interest rate cuts by 20bp, fiscalexpansion to boost consurnption, and a potential boost to property dernand. Themagnitude of policy stimulus in the spring hinges on the strength of external derand. FEcC: Peaple's Bank of China IELPA; The Imtemsticnel Cmergency EccnomitPoatrs Att Stimulus and trade hold the key to growth performance While we reckon the rlsks cf US-China trade deal breaking down will loom large formonths, we expect the bilateral trade relatlonship to bottom out on both tariffs andrestrictions, inducing some restocking cemancd to help support aggregate demandmomentum, Meanwhille, arny pol icy response being *too lictle too late" will potentilallydelay domestic demalid stabilization and make macro adjustment a bumpler ride. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Inuestors should consider thisreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 6 to 7. A widening gap between domestic demand and supply While recent activity data pointed to a clear softening trernd in domestic demand (rnainlyimvestment) since June, Q3 GDP growth surprised on the upside at 4.8% yoy, helped bystrcng exports. In cur view, the recent maro dlevelopment aligns vith our differentiatedview that growth will muddle through vithout immediate help from policy stimulus inthe near term (China Viewpoint: Murdling thrcugh), except that headline growth rateexceeded our forerasts by a Small margin with the Trump-Xi meeting in Korea setting aXi-Trumpl, risks are skewed to the upside to our existing growth forecasts for 202527.Therefare, we upgradle GDP gravth forecasts Io 5.0% far 2025, 4.73n for 2026, and4.5% for 2027 (from 4.7%, 4.3% and 4.1% previously). address the demand-supply gap, especially before negative expectations materialize intosupply cuts and layofs. We revise our CPI inflation forecast to -0.1% for 2025 and 0 for (Some) policy stimulus is starting to trickle in The gaad news is some policy stimulus is on the way. China deployed as much asRMB50Cbn of policy financing tools by end-Oct, enabling local govemments to replenishequity of infrastructure investm