IMF-2050年亚洲人口与消费

Demographics andConsumption in Asia Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano, and Jeongwon Son WP/25/247 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are Demographics and Consumption in AsiaToward 2050Prepared by Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano, and Jeongwon Son* Authorized for distribution by Andrea Pescatori IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:What are the implications of demographics on total consumption and its sectoral composition inAsia toward 2050? Although the literature has studied total consumption and individual consumption categoriesseparately, the research that studies both is scarce. Using household consumption surveys from seven Asianeconomies and UN population projections, we find that (1) the compositional effects of demographics on total RECOMMENDED CITATION:Ando, Sakai, Hidano Kaitoh, and Jeongwon Son (2025), “Demographics andConsumption in AsiaToward 2050,” IMF Working PaperNo.25/247 WORKING PAPERS Demographics and Consumption Prepared by Sakai Ando, Kaitoh Hidano, and Jeongwon Son 1.Introduction Asia is the most populous region and stands at the forefront of a demographic transformation that will reshapeeconomic and social structures across the region. Economies such as Japan and Korea are already Such large demographic shifts can alter consumption patterns in a predictable manner.Figure 1shows anexample from China, where the age 0 population, or the number of babies born in a year, halved between 2017and 2023, despite the abolition of the one-child policy in 2016. When the number of babies is half, industriesthat service them shrink. The number of OBGYN hospitals rose through 2018 and declined thereafter. After Figure 1is a specific example of China’s age 0 population, which gives rise to a more general question: Howdo demographics change future consumption in both the total and the composition across consumptioncategories? Different economies face different demographic pressures, including the retirement of baby Understanding the implications of demographics on consumption is important from a policy perspective. Forexample, policies to build schools, extend roads, or train doctors in one year will have a lasting impact over thefollowing decades. Given that population projection is one of the most reliable forward-looking data, it isimportant to understand its implications on consumption and integrate the insights into the government budget The literature has studied the implications of demographics on total consumption or studied individualconsumption categories separately, but the research that studies both across economies is scarce. Aksoy et al.(2019), Auclert et al. (2021), Kuhn and Prettner (2018), and IMF (2025) study the impact of demographicsusing Overlapping Generations model with an expenditure channel but abstract from the composition ofdifferent consumption categories. For individual consumption categories, Mason and Miller (2018) study theimpact of demographics on medical expenditure. Inoue et al. (2021) analyze the impact of demographics on To study the implications of demographics on consumption, we combine the population projection of UN (2024)and household consumption surveys across seven economies: China, India, Japan, Korea, Philippines,Singapore, and Tuvalu. The coverage of countries is limited by the availability of age information in householdconsumption surveys, but they are sufficiently diverse in income levels and demographics. Harmonizing Methodologically, we decompose aggregate consumption into the product of demographics and per capitaconsumption. In the baseline, we keep the per capita consumption at each age cohort constant and changeonly the demographics. Since different age cohorts consume different baskets, different consumptioncategories may grow at a different speed than the population, depending on the demographic structure. This The baseline results highlight the importance of middle-aged population in total consumption and reveal theconsumption categories sensitive to demographics. For total consumption, we find its growth mostly followspopulation growth, so the compositional effects of demographics are limited. They can, however, be so largethat the signs of consumption and population growth become opposite if the middle-aged cohorts that consumemost decline drastically, as in Singapore. For the composition of consumption, aging is common, and thus, thegrowth of old-dependent consumption categories, like Health and Furnishing, tends to be faster than young- The baseline results isolate the impact of demographics, but the per capita consumption at each age cohortcan be affected by many other factors through general equilibrium effects. For example, as an economybecomes more