投入价格对企业预期和决策的不对称和异质传递

The asymmetric andheterogeneous pass-through of by Fiorella De Fiore, Marco Jacopo Lombardi andGiacomo Mangiante Monetary and Economic Department November 2025 Keywords: Pass-through, heterogeneous firmexpectations, survey data, inflation. BISWorking Papers are written by members of the Monetary and EconomicDepartment of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by othereconomists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). The asymmetric and heterogeneous pass-through ofinput prices to firms’ expectations and decisions Fiorella De Fiore†Marco Jacopo LombardiOctober 30, 2025 Abstract This paper studies the pass-through of input price shocks to firms’ expectationsand pricing decisions using firm-level data from the Bank of Italy’s Survey on Inflationand Growth Expectations.We find a strong and asymmetric pass-through: positiveinput price shocks significantly raise firms’ price expectations, realised prices and short-term inflation expectations, while negative shocks have little impact. The pass-throughvaries systematically with firm characteristics: it is higher for upstream firms and for Keywords:Pass-through, heterogeneous firm expectations, survey data, inflation. JEL classification:D22, D84, E31, E50 1Introduction Firm pricing decisions are an especially important issue at times of elevated inflation andsupply chain disruptions. Pricing decisions, in turn, are determined by how firms respondto input cost shocks.Hence, understanding how firms translate input price changes into In this paper, we fill this gap and study how input price shocks affect firms’ expecta-tions and pricing behavior, using detailed firm-level data from the Bank of Italy’s Survey onInflation and Growth Expectations (SIGE). We identify exogenous shocks through forecast Our results highlight a significant pass-through from input prices to firms’ own-priceexpectations and realised prices: a 1 percentage point increase in the expected input pricegrowth leads to a 0.3 percentage point rise in expected own price growth and a 0.2 point We also document substantial heterogeneity in the pass-through.During periods oflow inflation, firms rely more heavily on firm-specific input price information when forming consistent with rational inattention models.The strength of the pass-through also variessystematically across firms: it is higher in manufacturing and industrial sectors, especiallyfor upstream firms, as well as for those facing greater uncertainty, adjusting prices more Our finding of a strong and asymmetric pass-through of input price shocks to firms’expectations suggests that an environment of elevated inflation may be self-reinforcing, as firms are more responsive to cost increases than to cost declines.2We also provide evidencethat central bank communication can play a stabilising role: providing firms with information Related literature. Our findings contribute to and extend several strands of the literatureon input cost pass-through, expectation formation, and pricing behaviour. First, we build on a large body of work showing incomplete pass-through of input costshocks to output prices at both micro and macro levels.3 Closest to our analysis, G¨odl-Hanisch and Menkhoff (2024) use a survey of German firms to show that pass-through is using the same Italian survey data as we do, document that firms often absorb cost shocks We extend this literature in several directions.Unlike most prior work, we link inputcost shocks not only to realised price changes but also to firms’ inflation expectations acrossmultiple horizons, examining both current and forward-looking pricing behavior.We also Second, we contribute to the literature on expectations formation. Consistent with priorwork (Boneva et al., 2020; Andrade et al., 2022), we find that firms extrapolate from theirown cost conditions when forming aggregate inflation expectations.We show that inputcost shocks directly influence these revisions. Moreover, this behaviour is state-dependent: Third, we provide novel empirical evidence of asymmetric pass-through, challenging thesymmetry assumption in standard New Keynesian models with fixed probabilities of priceadjustment (`a la Calvo, 1983) or quadratic adjustment costs (`a la Rotemberg, 1982). Ourresults are instead consistent with theoretical frameworks that allow for nonlinear and state- Empirically, our results build on prior evidence of asymmetric pricing behavior. Peltz-man (2000) shows that prices react more strongly and persistently to cost increases than to decreases across a broad set of goods, while Buckle and Carlson (2000) find that inflationamplifies this asymmetry by increasing the probability of price hikes and reducing respon- siveness to demand declines.Similar patterns are observed in response to VAT changes Finally, we contribute to the literature on heterogeneity in pricing behaviour.