UNDP-NDC洞察系列

Issue No.8 November 2025 About Issue No.8 This NDC Insights Issue will dive into the latest trends on submitted NDCs related to land use,land-use change and forestry(LULUCF)sector and spotlights the latest NDC submission fromLiberia. About UNDP UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty,inequality,and climate change.Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170countries,we help nations to build integrated,lasting solutions for people and planet.Learn moreatundp.org or follow at@UNDP. About UNDP’s Climate Promise UNDP’s Climate Promise is the UN system’s largest portfolio of support on climate action,working with more than 140 countries and territories and directly benefiting 37 million people.This portfolio implements over US$2.45 billion in grant financing and draws on UNDP’s expertisein adaptation,mitigation,carbon markets,climate and forests,climate risk and security,andclimate strategies and policy. Visit our website atclimatepromise.undp.org and follow us at@UNDPplanet. Copyright©UNDP 2025.All rights reserved.One United Nations Plaza,New York,NY 10017,USA. Latest trends and insights As COP30 in Belem builds political momentum on climate action,the latest NDC analyses showprogress towards long-term net-zero pathways,however,it is not proving fast enough.While it isnow inevitable that there will be a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold,it is still possible tobring temperatures back down—keeping 1.5°C within reach—if countries step up and deploy allavailable solutions.Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation as well as theconservation and enhancement of forest carbon sinks are among the most effective and viablesolutions to accelerate action. As of 15 November 2025,a total of 117 parties,including 15 G20 countries,16Least Developed Countries(LDCs)and 21 Small Island Developing States(SIDS),have submitted new NDCs for the 2025 cycle,covering around 73percent of total global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.With COP30 in full swing,we have seen a surge of NDC submissions andannouncements.Theseincludelong-anticipated submissions fromG20members,including China,the European Union,Indonesia and South Africa,which leaves five members(Argentina,India,Mexico,Republic of Korea andSaudi Arabia)remaining to submit. As we dive into the new generation of NDCs,four key trends related to landuse,land-use change and forestry sector(LULUCF)emerge: Majority of NDCs(97 percent)include LULUCF sector,with 75 percentincluding as part ofan economy-wide target and 68 percent havingspecified a discrete LULUCF sectoral-level target.All NDCs now explicitly recognize the vital role of forests,referencing theircontribution to mitigation,adaptation,or both.Reducing emissions from deforestation,forest degradation,conservation offorest carbon stocks,sustainable management of forests and enhancementofforest carbon stocks(REDD+)has continued to gain momentum indeveloping countries,with 32 percent of new NDCs making direct referenceto the role of REDD+in NDC implementation.There is a growing recognition of the leading role of Indigenous Peoplesand local communities within the LULUCF sector.1.2.3.4. Country spotlight:Liberia Liberia’s third NDC aims to transition its forest from an emissions source to anemissions sink to deliver on its climate and development objectives.The newNDC commits to reducing the national deforestation rate by 10 percent andexpanding protected areas by 200,000 hectares.It aligns with the first globalstocktake,particularly on clean energy,and aims to reduce GHG emissions by64 percent by 2035 against business-as-usual(BAU).The new NDC integratesgender,children,youth and local communities’engagement,policy coherencewithin the Rio conventions,and SDG linkages. NDC submission status As of 15 November 2025,a total of 117 parties(15 G20,16 LDCs and 21 SIDS),covering around 73percent of total global GHG emissions,have submitted new NDCs for the 2025 cycle.WithCOP30 in full swing,we have seen a surge in NDC submissions and announcements includinglong-anticipated submissions from G20 members,including China,the European Union,IndonesiaandSouth Africa,which leaves five members(Argentina,India,Mexico,Republic ofKoreaand Saudi Arabia)remaining to submit.Zambia submitted a full NDC 3.0 in Octoberreplacing its provisional submission in March.Other countries with provisional submissions suchasColombia,Jordan,Panama,SeychellesandTunisiaare expected to follow suit.12 Analyses from UNFCCC’s2025 NDC Synthesis Reportreveals that the emissions trajectories setout in new NDCs are broadly consistent with a linear trajectory from the Parties’2030 targets totheir long-term net-zero targets,with total global GHG emissions(with LULUCF)in 2035 areprojected to be around 12 percent below 2019 levels,compared to an increase of 20 to 48percent before the adoption of the Paris Agreement.This shows that Parties are laying out clearstepping-stones to