菲律宾食糖半年度报告

Date:November 26, 2025 Report Number:RP2025-0043 Report Name:Sugar Semi-annual Country:Philippines Post:Manila Report Category:Sugar Prepared By:Florence Mojica-Sevilla Approved By:Herpin Rochet Jateng Report Highlights: Post forecasts sugar production in Marketing Year (MY) 2026 to remain flat at 2.085 million metric tons(MT).While there are expansion areas especially in Mindanao, the red-striped soft scale insects (RSSI)are affecting some sugarcane fields, which could result in lower sugar recovery. Favorable cropdevelopment in the Southern Negros is expected to compensate for the decrease in production caused byRSSI infestation. On September 29, 2025, the Philippines released Sugar Order No. 1 (SO1) allocating100 percent of its production to the domestic market. The decision aligns with FAS Manila’s forecast ofzero exports in MY 2026, pending future announcements regarding the Philippines decision to ship theircountry-specific allocation of sugar to the U.S. WTO raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ). Consumption isprojected to remain steady at 2.2 million MT, with imports of 208,000 MT expected to fulfill theremaining volume approved under Sugar Order No. 8 released in July 2025. Production: Centrifugal Sugar (Raw Sugar).FAS Manila revised the PSD historical data on sugar centrifugal forMY 2024, MY 2025, and forecast year MY 2026 to align with official Philippine Sugar RegulatoryAdministration (SRA) data. On July 8, 2025, SRA issued Circular Letter (CL) No. 32-A amending themarketing year, shifting it toOctober1-September 30, replacing the previous September 1-August 31MY cycle (CL32).Please see GAIN reporthere.Revised ending stock balances at the end of September30areaccordingly reflected as carry-over stocks or beginning stock balances starting week endingOctober 5, 2025, of MY 2026. FAS Manila forecastsMY2026(October2025toSeptember2026) raw sugar productiontoremain flatat 2.085million MT. NegrosOccidental, accounts for over 60 percent of sugarcane area, showsfavorable crop development in the South. The red-striped soft scale insects (RSSI), however, areaffecting some parts of Negros Island, especially the northern part and these areas are expected toproduce sugarcane with lower sucrose content depending on the extent of RSSI infestation. Favorablecrop development in the Southern Negros is expected to compensate for the decrease in productioncaused by RSSI infestation in the Northern part. Furthermore,utilization of improved high yieldingvarieties, better soil healthand enhanced irrigation systems helped farmers improve their production.On September29, 2025, SRA released the Sugar Order No. 1 (SO1) with estimated raw sugarproduction of 1.92 million MT with a possibility of decrease due to RSSI infestation and excessiverainfall in Negros. On September 11, 2025, the SRA released the RSSI infestation status reportin thePhilippines; total areas affected are estimated at 6,333 ha, including close to 5,000 ha in Negros Island.According to SRA, actual numbers of RSSI infestation could be more than what SRA validated. The estimated area affected is less than 2 percent ofthe total area planted to sugarcane. Thecorresponding decrease in raw sugar productionhas yet to be determined and will be assessedonce milling starts on September 29, 2025.Post revisestheproductionestimatefor MY2025to2.085million MTto match SRA’s officialproduction numbers. The overall surpassedindustry’s expectations as farms overcame thenegative impact of El Niño. SRA’s initialannouncement of lowerproduction at 1.78 MMTwas based on weather forecasts for El Niñoduring planting season from October to May,resulting in early stunted growth of sugarcane.The onset of the rainy season, however, helpedsugarcane crops recover, producing more stalkswith ample moisture. The crop matured earlywith a higher sucrose content, leading to highersugar production than expected. Industrycontactsreported double cropping in some areas, wherefarmers harvested immature canes due to RSSI infestation, while othersdid so for cash flow purposes. Sucrose recovered was lower but produced more molasses. PostestimatesMY 2026sugarcane area at 400,000 hectares (ha), reflectinganincrease in area planted,particularly in Mindanao.This expansion is driven by the conversion ofsome bananaplantation affectedby Fusarium wilt (Panama disease)into sugarcane. The loss of area inLuzon due to land conversion toresidential and commercial purposes will partly offset area expansion in Mindanao. The prevailing highpricesof sugarwill continue to encourage farmers to plant sugarcanerather than switching to alternativecropslikecorn, cassava, and banana. Post adjusted sugarcane area in MY 2025 to 392,356 hectares following the official figure of SRA.There were some areas in Mindanao thatwere not includedin the initial estimate; hence the higherproduction volume reported from Mindanao. Sugarcane planting normally starts in October and ends in May.Ample rainfall supported sugarcanepla