韩国宏观审慎政策的有效性及其与货币政策的最优政策组合分析

September 21, 2025 Analysis ofthe Effectiveness ofMacroprudential Policy anditsOptimalPolicy Mix with Monetary Policyin Korea ChooDongho Choi Changhun Yoon Jinwoon Lee Gaeun Junior Economist,Macroeconomic Modeling Team,Office of Economic Modeling andPolicy Analysis, Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4170gel1018@bok.or.kr Economist,Macroeconomic Modeling Team,Office of Economic Modeling andPolicy Analysis, Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4226coolingfan83@bok.or.kr Economist,Macroeconomic Modeling Team,Office of Economic Modeling andPolicyAnalysis, Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4248dhchoo@bok.or.kr Junior Economist,Macroeconomic Modeling Team,Office of Economic Modeling andPolicy Analysis, Bank of KoreaTel. 02-759-4176jinwoon@bok.or.kr [Executive Summary] 1.Amid prolonged economic slowdown and forecasts that Korea’s growth in 2025 and 2026 willremain below its potential,house pricesin Seoul have continued to rise–driven largely by theapartment–since the second half of last year,accompanied by a continuedincreasein householddebt, heightening concerns over financial stability risks. 2.Insuchcircumstances,interest rate cutsaimedatmitigatingthe economicslowdowncouldfurtherincrease the financial stability risk. Consequently, monetary policy alone cannotsimultaneously achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability, making close coordinationwith macroprudential policymorenecessary. This paper presents an effective policy mix ofmonetary and macroprudential policies in the contextwherethetrade-off between economicgrowth and financial stabilityhasintensified. 3.Wefirstanalyze themaindriversofSeoulapartment pricefluctuationsand find that economicconditions, housing supply–demand and market sentiment, and interest rates collectivelyinfluencepricemovements. Since June of last year, despite the downward pressure from theweak economy, supply–demandandmarket sentiment,alongwithinterest rate haveexertedtheupward pressure,drivingthecontinuedriseinSeoulapartment prices. 4.Next, the tightening of macroprudential policy was found to be effective in curbing the rise inhouse pricesand the growth of mortgage loans, while having only a limited impact onconstraining economicgrowth. Thissuggeststhat more stringent macroprudentialpolicycanpartially offset the adverse impact of accommodative monetary policy on financial stability. 5.To explore an effective policy mix between monetary and macroprudentialpolicies,weexaminehowthetimingofmacroprudentialpolicytighteningaffectsitsimpactonfinancial stabilitybasedonmodelsimulation. The results demonstrate that when macroprudential tighteningprecedes accommodative monetary policy, it is more effective in curbing the rise inhouse pricesand the growth of household lending than when it follows. 6.Meanwhile, amid continued increases inhouse pricesand household debt, implementing aninterest rate cut without first strengthening macroprudential policy could be perceived as a weakpolicy commitmenton the part ofauthoritiestofinancial stability. Such a perception couldfuelexpectations for furtherhouse price rises,thereby amplifying the financial stability risksassociated with monetary easing,while its positiveeffecton economic growth may beweakerthan under normal circumstances. 7.In summary, during periodswithconcernsabouteconomicslowdownandbuildupoffinancialimbalances, close coordination between monetary and macroprudential policiesis crucial.Implementing stronger macroprudentialpolicyprior to interest rate cuts—rather than after—isconsideredto bea more effective policy mix. ■Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not necessarilyreflect the official views of the Bank of Korea. When reporting or citing this paper, theAuthors’names should be always explicitly stated.■We would like to thank Lee Jungik, director of the Office of Economic Modeling and PolicyAnalysis, and Oh Hyoungseok, head of the Macroeconomic Modeling Team, for theirvaluable assistance and advice. We also appreciate the helpful comments offered byparticipants of the in-house seminar. Any errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. Bank of Korea Ⅰ. Background metropolitan region, contributing to further increases inhouseholddebt andexacerbatingfinancial imbalances.Accordingly,the Bank of Korea should exerciseheightenedcaution regarding financial stabilityconsiderations inthe conduct of monetary policy.2Meanwhile,in the context of persistent economicsluggishness, accommodative monetary policy aimed atstimulating growth could amplify financial stabilityrisks.Consequently,monetary policy alone cannotsimultaneously achieve both economic and financialstability.In this context of growingtrade-off betweengrowth and financial stability, close coordination withmacroprudential policy is essential. Amidprolongedeconomicslowdownandforecaststhat Korea’s GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 will remainbelowits potential,house prices in Seoul havecontinued to rise, driven primarily by the apartmentsince the second half of