全球展望：“人工智能的走向…”

‘As goes AI…’ In our view, AI is driving global growth byoffsettingtrade-related headwinds. Once again, we expect global equitymarkets to outperform core fixed income for the comingquarter. Ajay Rajadhyaksha(i)+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Foreword Macro Outlook We expect AI to be the most important macro factor in 2026, as traditional drivers such asmonetary policy and trade policy fade. We think fears of a collapse in the AI narrative areoverdone and expect the economic expansion to continue for yet another year. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. (i)This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt researchreports under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 77.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 77.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 78.Completed: 19-Nov-25, 22:01 GMTReleased: 20-Nov-25, 05:00 GMTRestricted - External Investment Outlook Still not a bubble. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Despite skepticism, US tech is still likely to lead, and valuations are not bubble-like. Bondreturns should be mediocre despite Fed cuts, favoring equities over fixed income. The AI boomhas also created cross-asset opportunities in FX and credit. Summary of Asset Allocation Themes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Critical Minerals The magnetic pull of rare earths. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23China's rare earth curbs in 2025 tripled prices, jolting EVs and energy. But the real flashpoint isdefence, where rare earth magnets – almost 100% made in China – power next-gen tech. TheWest is racing to build mine-to-magnet capacity in 3–5 years, but full independence remains outof reach. Global Trade Something's gotta give. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39UStariffsthus far have mainly caused trade diversion, while China's export growth continues.With booming investment and low savings, the US will likely still run large external deficits. Ifnot, the rest of the world could struggle to absorb China's excess capacities, causing more tradetensions. Powering AI The new space race. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Whoever wins the energy race likely will win the AI race. This is increasing emphasis on energyneeds and risks to AI spending, economic growth and American exceptionalism. Appendix Global forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Updated forecasts for global bond yields, WTI, Brent, global equity indices, select FX/EMcurrency pairs and key economic forecasts, including GDP, inflation, debt and interest rates. Foreword ‘As goes AI…’ The AI narrative has buoyed markets and activity in theworld's two largest economies. We think concerns about anAI-led correction are overdone; US growth in particularshould pick up in 2026. Ajay Rajadhyaksha(i)+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Listen Three weeks ago, Chair Powell sprang a surprise at the October FOMC meeting, warninginvestors not to take a December rate cut for granted. Just three hoursafterthat, this writerwent on a financial news channel for a TV interview. Nothing notable – Wall Street analystsdouble up as talking heads all the time. Whatwasnotable was that several minutes in, therehad not been a single question about the Fed. Not one. All the questions were about OpenAI’splans for an eventual IPO, Meta’s spending, whether cloud computing could generate enoughrevenue to justify hyperscaler outlays, etc. AI today, AI tomorrow, AI forever. 'Tis the season. This might sound hyperbolic