麦肯锡_2025重塑未来：全球贸易变局中的印度汽车零部件产业研究报告

September 2025 Shaping the future ofIndia’s auto componentindustry amid global Acknowledgments McKinsey & Company has developed this independent research report as the knowledge partnerfor the 65th Annual Conference organized by the Automotive Component M anufacturers Association of The authors thank ACMA’s leadership for the opportunity to present this study at the Annual Session.In particular, we are grateful to Shradha Suri Marwah, Vikrampati Singhania, Vinnie Mehta, members of the Many McKinsey colleagues provided valuable advice and analysis for this report, including Nitesh Gupta,Bhavesh Mittal, K Ganesh, Soundharya Narayanan, Gandharv Vig, and Akshay Asija. We thank McKinsey’sproject team, consisting of Meghana G and Sumit Goenka. We are also grateful to Anamika Mukharji andFatema Nulwala for their communications expertise and guidance, and to P Sarath Kumar for the design of Authors Brajesh ChhibberPartnerRajat DhawanSenior PartnerShivanshu GuptaSenior PartnerShubham SinghalSenior PartnerAkash MisraAssociate PartnerJayati ShahAssociate Partner Contents Executive summary 1India’s auto component opportunity amid shiftingtrade dynamics 2Implications of global trade disruptions for India’s autocomponent value chain 3Achieving value for India’s auto component industry Executive summary Geopolitical and structural changes have been redrawing global trade patterns, with anestimated $12 trillion to $14 trillion in trade expected to shift across trade corridors by 2035. Despite these challenges, global trade is projected to grow from $33 trillion in 2024 to$42 trillion to $45 trillion by 2035.1 The auto component industry has been heavily impacted by trade corridor shifts. India isnow emerging as a key player in this realignment, helped by its cost competitiveness, skilled This is evidenced by a steady expansion of opportunities in the domestic and export marketsand a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 10 percent over the past five years in the The two pillars driving this growth are a $20 billion to $30 billion internal combustion engine (ICE)export opportunity by 2030 as global markets consolidate, and a 35 percent CAGR in domesticelectric vehicle (EV) sales in line with rising worldwide electrification and connectivity.4 As these structural changes play out, they create short-to-medium term disruptions in the globaltrade flows, with implications for India’s automotive component value chain. —Reliance on critical components such as rare earth elements and semiconductors, the bulk of —Capability gaps in advanced technologies, high and growing import dependence, and limitedinvestment in R&D for sustainable alternatives undermine global competitiveness. —Policy shifts and carbon taxes in trade with developed markets are seeing suppliers setup local production in export markets, adopt greener practices, and diversify the export —MSMEs, which contribute approximately 40 percent to industry revenue,5face structuralinequities such as a lack of economies of scale, rising costs, limited access to global markets, To navigate the evolving landscape and capitalize on emerging opportunities to lock in long-term value, —The IGNITEapproach: •ICEGlobal play can be enhanced by upgrading and refining supply chain strengths, paving the wayfor India to secure the “last person standing” advantage. •New technology can be developed to future-proof the industry and ensure relevance in •Investment in critical capabilities, such as global sales expertise and adherence to quality •Talent rewiring can create an effective future-ready workforce and close gaps between academicand industry training and the skill sets required on the ground. •Engagement with industry peers, academia, and startups can drive innovation, create intellectual —TheGAINapproach (Government,Association,Institutional finance support, andNetwork effortof MSMEs) to collaborations can serve as the primary lever to address systemic challenges, secureaccess to critical resources, and encourage innovation. Strategic trade agreements, infrastructure With these moves, the Indian auto component industry can weather short-to-medium term disruptionsand establish itself as a key player in global automotive value chains. 1. India’s auto componentopportunity amid The auto component industry is experiencing a major reshaping of international commerce, influencedby evolving geopolitical factors and restructuring of supply chains. Amid these shifts, India has emergedas a strategic manufacturing partner. Due to its robust manufacturing growth, strong domestic demand,working age demographic, and strategically advantageous trade location, India offers resilience and Geopolitical shifts are redrawing the automotive trade map Geopolitical and structural shifts are realigning global trade, creating opportunities alongsidechallenges for industries and policymakers. About $12 trillion to $14 trillion in overall trade is expected toshift over t