流动显示交易FCI、PMI-CPI

The Flow Show Trading FCI, PMI & CPI Scores on the Doors: gold 58.6%, international stocks 27.5%, US stocks 14.6%, IGbonds 9.6%, HY bonds 9.4%, commodities 7.2%, govt bonds 6.7%, bitcoin 5.8%, cash3.7%, US dollar -8.6%, oil -17.8% YTD. 13 November 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal Tale of the Tape: record year of inflows to equity ETFs ($1.3tn annualized–Chart 3), IGbonds ($430bn), tech ($72bn), 2ndbiggest inflow year ever to MMFs ($1.2tn), US large cap ($423bn), outflow losers: small cap ($64bn–record), real estate ($15bn).The Price is Right: mass ease of financial conditions boom for Wall St but cost of borrowing on Main St still“unaffordable”…4% borrowing cost for US government, 5%for IG corporates vs. over 6% for mortgages, 7% for small biz credit line, 8% for home Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: peak easy financial conditions = trough credit spreads; wider tech(Wall St leader) bond spreads/credit default swaps as cash insufficient to finance AI Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087 Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, or Trading ideas and investmentstrategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Weekly Flows: $18.7bn to bonds, $18.3bn to stocks, $7.7bn to cash, $2.9bn to gold,$22mn to crypto. Flows to Know: •Japan: biggest outflow past 5 weeks ($0.9bn); Korea: 2ndbiggest inflow on record ($2.0bn)…largest 4-week inflow ever ($3.8bn– Chart 11); •Healthcare: biggest inflow since Jan'21 ($1.9bn–Chart 12); •Energy: largest inflow past 5 months ($0.9bn). 2025 Foreign Flows into US: •US equities: $134bn inflow (annualized) = 2ndbiggest year ever (after $163bn in’24–Chart 13); US bonds: $40bn inflow (despite debt, deficit, dollar concerns–Chart 14–was$96bn in‘24). BofA Private Clients: $4.2tn AUM…64.6% stocks, 18.0% bonds, 10.3% cash; biggestweekly inflow to equity ETFs since Apr’25; past 4 weeks, private clients buying growth,Japan, staples ETFs vs selling bank loan, financial, municipal bond ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: dips to 6.3 from 6.4 on HY bond outflows, slowing EMequity inflows, wider credit spreads, bearish US Treasury hedge fund positions. BofA Global FMS: Nov survey released on 18th; actionable contrarian surveys of past 18 months… FMS in Aug'24 & Apr'25 = “buy the bears”… FMS in Dec'24 & Feb'25 = “sell thebulls”; excess bull metrics in Nov FMS to watch for… •FMS cash level falls to very low 3.7% or lower (3.8% in Oct); •FMS equity allocation rises to net 50% OW or higher (32% in Oct); FMS global growth expectations turn positive for 1sttime in’25 (-8% in Oct). The Santa Flaws Rally: when market narrative is AI boom/bubble and that governmentbackstops are for“national security”reasons, that Fed not just cutting at highs but setto launch QE in H1, that tax cuts next year to be augmented by $2k stimulus checks… Year Ahead CW: conventional wisdom into ’26 on macro… goldilocks, lower rates/higherprofits, US admin wants strong growth into midterms, stock market = economy & keepsK-shaped US consumer spending, AI via job losses/productivity stops inflation; and onmarkets… ’26 price action likely front-loaded, Fed put/Trump put/Gen Z put means assetallocators long stocks, short bonds into ’26 until bank stocks or credit spreads signalrisk-off, not likely before May; we say financial conditions (FCI), growth (PMI), inflation FCI trade:“liquidity trade”= peak FCI = trough spreads = short AI hyperscaler bonds;secret sauce for risk assets in ’25 has been massive easing of financial conditions… 167rate cuts past 12 months which sent bond yields & dollar lower (Chart 9); but CB rate cutmomentum slowdown… 81 cuts next 12 months, and Fed & BoE 50-75bps cuts, offsetby ECB/RBA/BoC now on hold,