交叉_资产_UK_预算_政策_交易_折扣_市场_信号_和_部门_主题

UK Budget: Policytrade-offs,market signals and sector themes SIGNATURE The forthcoming UK Budget is consequential. We providedetailed insights across Economics, Strategy, Equity andCredit. We highlight scenarios andofferviews on how to be UK Economics Jack Meaning(ii)+ 44 (0) 207 773 3424jack.meaning@barclays.comBarclays, UK Equity StrategyEmmanuel Cau, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 0475emmanuel.cau@barclays.com In short, the budget’s success hinges on credibility. Delivering tough choices withoutderailing growth could stabilise markets, lower risk premia and support selectiveopportunities across equities and credit. Failure risks prolonged uncertainty and Credit Strategy UK Economics: Potential fiscal consolidation: £25-35bn and potential tax rises >£40bn. Thiswould weigh on GDP growth (0.25-0.4% at peak) albeit, even with this drag, we think the UK ison course for 1.4%/1.9% GDP growth in 2026/27 as easing interest rates and diminishing Melissa McCallum, CFA(i)+ 44 (0) 20 7773 3573melissa.mccallum@barclays.comBarclays, UK Equity Strategy: If the chancellor delivers in line with our economists’ base case, it might bea silver lining for UK equities, as the cost of capital may go down. We believe the housebuilder,food retail,utilitiesandreal estatesectors allofferattractive tactical risk/ Fundamental Credit Karine Elias(i)+971 43 621017karine.elias@barclays.comBarclays Bank, DIFC Credit Strategy: The risks to sterling credit are likely to be pretty contained as credit is notthe cleanest way of expressing a view on UK risk compared to other asset classes. Retail (Credit and Equity): Higher income taxes could lead to consumers trading down aswell as opting for eating-in vs dining-out. We think this would benefit value operators (eg, Fundamental Equity James Anstead+44 (0)20 3134 6166james.anstead@barclays.comBarclays, UK Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its Richard Taylor+44 (0)20 3555 2650richard.e.taylor@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this Pravin Gondhale +44 (0)20 3134 5524pravin.gondhale@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt research This author is a member of the Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Researchdepartment and is not an equity or debt research analyst. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 19.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 19.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 22.Completed: 11-Nov-25, 21:44 GMTReleased: 12-Nov-25, 05:30 GMTRestricted - External Puregym1). Business rate reform could benefit small and mid-sized grocers (eg,Iceland2) and negatively impact larger operators (eg,Tesco,Sainsbury,M&S3andKingfisher4).UK Small & Mid-Cap Consumer (Equity): Our preferred UK-only names areDunelm,Greggs,Victorian PlumbingandJD Wetherspoon.Dunelmis the lowest risk play in our view. Ourleast preferred stocks areDomino’s PizzaandPets at Home. For overseas exposure wefavourWatches of Switzerland (c50% US). We note thatIG Group(OW rated) faces risks European Leisure (Equity): We anticipate changes to taxes paid by gambling companies. Wehave changed our view on a potential tax hike – we now see scope for a bigger tax hike (>25%tax rate for online gaming and >20% for betting) than previously anticipated (c25% tax rate Executive summary The UK Autumn Budget 2025, due on 26 November, is shaping up to be one of the mostconsequential fiscal events in recent years. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a delicate balancingact: restoring fiscal credibility while navigating political promises and supporting growth in achallenging macro environment. We estimate a net consolidation of £25-35bn, largely through The economic backdrop is complex. Fiscal tightening is expected to weigh on GDP by 0.25-0.4%at peak between mid-2026 and early 2028, but easing monetary policy shouldoffsetsome ofthis drag. Inflation is forecast to return to 2% by mid-2026, enabling the Bank of England toresume rate cuts – we expect one cut in December and another in Q1 26. While recent data – Forequity markets, the implications are nuanced. The FTSE100 has