美中贸易协定后，中国跟踪器恢复正常。..-118830008

Economics China Tracker Return to normal post US-China trade Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203-6166 China’s trade activities have been rebounding across the board since lateOctober.Exports dropped substantially to-1% YoY in October, downfrom 8%,amidrenewed trade tensions.Following a trade agreement, shipments recoveredrobustly inrecent weeks,with shipping capacity on major routes increasing in theweeks ahead. US-bound container prices surged by 30% from their late-October Hazel LaiMacro Strategist Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203-6139 Perry KojodjojoStrategist Consumptionwill likely rebound in October,while the property sector issoftening.ThelongerGolden Week holiday spurred a substantial increase inmigration during early October, and thismomentum hassustainedthroughoutthe month.We expect the services output to increase to 6.0% YoY from 5.6% inSeptember.Retail sales are also positively influenced by the holiday effect and Consumer inflation shows positive signs.October CPI inflation(0.2% YoY)returnedtopositive for the first time in nine months, primarily driven bythe strongcore CPI.This positive momentum continued into November, as evidenced byimprovements in the online CPI index (a reliable proxy for non-food CPI). Production and investment are likely to slow, though investment shouldreboundin the coming months due to fiscal support.Industrial output is expected to slowto 6.0% YoY from 6.5%, due to fewer working days and contracted exports.YTDinvestment is forecast to remainsubdued at-0.5% YoY in Octoberamid anti- Trade Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Wind Source:Deutsche BankResearch, CEIC Source:Deutsche BankResearch, Wind, BloombergFinance LP Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Wind Domestic demandand inflation Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Wind Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Baidu Migration Source:Deutsche Bank Research, CEIC Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Wind Supply and policy Source:Deutsche Bank Research, China Construction Machinery Association Source:Deutsche Bank Research, CEIC Source:Deutsche Bank, CEIC Source:Deutsche Bank Research, Wind 12 November 2025China Tracker Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis,equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. Theydo not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bankprovides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research term ratings. Some trade ideas for equities are listed as Catalyst Calls on the Research Website(https://research.db.com/Research/) , and can be found on the general coverage list and also on the coveredcompany's page. A Catalyst Call represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform orunderperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frameof no less than two weeks and no more thanthree months. In addition to Catalyst Calls, analysts may occasional