美联储观察12月怀疑-118797991

December doubts Amy Yang | Matthew Luzzetti | Brett Ryan | Justin Weidner | Avik Chattopadhyay November 10, 2025 DB Fed Watcher: December doubts Summary:Officials’ views remained highly split with a majority favoring cautious approach. Meaningfully higher bar for further rate cutin DecemberDB View: 25bps rate cut December, reaching a neutral level of 3.625% Chart highlights Recentpublications: USEconomicPerspectives:Omniadebitasolventur?–Nov-07-2025 USEconomicPerspectives:Harddatahardlysupportslaborhoardingstory–Nov-05-2025 USEconomicChartbook:USConsumerChartbook:Isaggregatestrengthatrickoratreat?–Oct-31-2025 FedNotes:OctoberFOMCrecap:Decnotadonedeal–Oct-29-2025 Source: FRB Dallas, FRB Cleveland, BEA, Haver Analytics, DeutscheBank FedNotes:OctoberFOMCsurveyresults–Oct Trade policyuncertainty recededfrom April butremained extremely elevated USEconomicNotes:SeptemberCPIrecap:Heltershelter–Oct-24-2025 FedNotes:OctoberFOMCpreview:QT(re)treatasFedfocusesontrickyframeworkreviewissues USEconomicPerspectives:FedspeakremainedmoderatelydovishinleaduptoOctobermeeting Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Key economic forecasts Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has notand will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, Justin Weidner. AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. thisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbanking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethecurrentjudgmentoftheauthorasofthedateofthisreport.TheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofDeutscheBankandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.DeutscheBankprovidesliquidityforbuyersandsellersofsecuritiesissuedbythecompaniesitcovers.DeutscheBankresearchanalystssometimeshaveshorter-termtrade ideas that may be inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings.Some trade ideas for equities are listed as Catalyst Calls ideas on the Research Website(https://research.db.com/Research/),andcanbefoundonthegeneralcoveragelistandalsoonthecoveredcompany’spage.ACatalystCallidearepresentsahigh-convictionbeliefbyananalystthatastockwilloutperformorunderperformthemarketand/oraspecifiedsectoroveratimeframeofnolessthantwoweeksandnomorethanthreemonths.InadditiontoCatalystCallsideas,analystsmayoccasionallydiscusswithourclients,andwithDeutscheBanksalespersonsandtraders,tradingstrategiesorideasthatreferencecatalystsoreventsthatmayhaveanear-termormedium-termimpactonthemarketpriceofthesecuritiesdiscussedinthisreport,whichimpactmaybedirectionallycountertotheanalysts'current12-monthviewoftotalreturnorinvestmentreturnasdescribedherein.DeutscheBankhasnoobligationtoupdate,modifyoramendthisreportortootherwisenotifyarecipientthereofifanopinion,forecastorestimatechangesorbecomes discussedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforallinvestors,andinvestorsmustmaketheirowninformedinvestmentdecisions.Pricesandavailabilityoffinancialinstrumentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice,andinvestmenttransactionscanleadtolossesasaresultofpricefluctuationsandotherfactors.Ifafinancialinstrumenti