您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [ITIF]:美国需要数据中心,数据中心需要能源,但这不一定是问题 - 发现报告

美国需要数据中心,数据中心需要能源,但这不一定是问题

信息技术 2025-11-24 ITIF 张彦男 Tim
报告封面

ROBIN GASTER|NOVEMBER 2025 Electricity demand is growing rapidly and starting to strain the grid. Instead of slowing thegrowth of data centers, the United States should deploy new technologies and strategies to KEY TAKEAWAYS Demand for electricity is rising fast, and that will likely continue. Data centers appear tobe significant drivers, which has prompted calls to slow their growth or even prevent them The United States should instead squeeze more power from the existing grid without New technology can increase supply from existing transmission lines and generators. That On the demand side, there is spare capacity, but not at peak times. Large users such asdata centers can be encouraged to shift demand to off-peak periods, without damaging Up to 40 percent of data centers’ needs are not highly time sensitive, so they can bepartners in managing peak demand by proactively shifting some of their use to different Regulators should change incentives for utilities, enact planning reforms, launch newdemonstrations and pilots projects, and improve data collection and metrics. And CONTENTS Key Takeaways................................................................................................................... 1Introduction....................................................................................................................... 3Peak Demand and the Electricity Grid .................................................................................. 4Demand Growth ................................................................................................................. 7Meeting Demand................................................................................................................ 8Demand Side Solutions: Demand Management, Data Centers, and More................................ 10Data Centers as Grid Assets ........................................................................................... 10Creating a Flexible Partner for the Grid ........................................................................ 10Real-World Examples ................................................................................................. 11Other Demand-Side Options........................................................................................... 13Efficiency and Grid-Interactive Buildings ..................................................................... 13EV Charging .............................................................................................................. 13Rethinking Load Growth: Peak Load Curtailment........................................................... 14Supply-Side Solutions....................................................................................................... 14Dynamic Line Ratings (DLR) .......................................................................................... 14Reconductoring With Advanced Conductors ..................................................................... 15 INTRODUCTION The explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) also implies rapid growth of electricity demand,for the first time in several decades. Previously, growing electrification had been roughlymatched by growing efficiency, leaving demand flat. That is now changing, quite rapidly. OpenAI and the other AI companies are seeking out sources that can provide multiple gigawatts ofenergy, sothey certainly believe demand is growing. Beyond data centers, more electric vehicles Supply is another matter. It takes time to add generating capacity to the grid, and more time todevelop the transmission lines to move electricity to where it’s needed. That in part is why hugenew AI campuses are being designed: AI companies can then control their own energy generation But all that new capacity is some years away. Manufacturers have a five-year backlog for gasturbines. Solar is quicker to build but harder to permit, and locations are usually not that close todemand so transmission is needed. New-build nuclear is at least a decade away. And while we Data centers therefore seek electricity from the existing grid. And the grid has a fundamentaldilemma. In the early 20th century, the U.S. grid emerged from a period of competition intogeographically separated monopolies. It made no sense to build separate competing wireseverywhere, and electricity companies quickly became vertically integrated, managing electricity The fundamental social contract for these regulated monopolies was that they would have toprovide service to everyone who wanted it (“universal service”). These monopoly utilities wereregulated in such a way that they were able to make a steady return on their assets. Butderegulation over the past few decades has chipped away at those monopolies. Much of the Data centers need energy quickly, but new capacity takes time, and regulators won’t price out orabandon existing customers. So, bridging solutions to future capacity