2026全球经济展望及投资策略

全GLAN全球经LOBALNDINV经济展LECOVESTM展望及ONOMIMENTS投资策ICOUSTRAT策略UTLOOTEGYOK 格物UNCCHA物致知，COVERDEARTNEW成势在人EEPERINSHORIZON人SIGHTS,NS icbci.coom.hk 序言Preface 王文彬 Wenbin WangPh.D., CFA, FRM董事长 Chairman 穿越周期洞见新机 风禾尽起，时机交替。回望 2025 年，全球经济于多重变局中迎来关键转折。美联储降息周期再度开启，全球关税博弈峰回路转，然全球地缘冲突迭起、科技竞合加剧、供应链重构深化、美国财政约束趋紧等挑战突出。全球经济航行于曙光隐现却暗礁潜藏的未知海域，风险资产于高估值区间内震荡加剧。中国经济于复杂环境中应变克难、稳健前行，在“十四五”圆满收官之际，以高质量发展奏响稳中有进的昂扬主旋律。香港资本市场强势复苏，恒生指数全年涨幅领跑全球，IPO 募资额重登全球首位，国际债券发行规模亚洲领先，尽显东方明珠蓬勃活力。 破立相生，故新相推。展望 2026 年，全球宏观经济呈现短期韧性与中长期结构性风险交织的复杂图景，并深刻牵动全球投资脉络。对中国而言，“十五五”规划蓝图初展，在产业升级、科技创新与内需驱动的合力下，中国经济潜能将加速释放，其价值投资优势亦将愈加凸显。内外多重力量共振之下，香港“超级联系人”与“超级增值人”的双重角色将更趋关键。伴随资本市场改革深化、互联互通标的持续扩容、离岸人民币业务枢纽地位巩固提升，香港作为全球资金配置中国资产的首选门户，将在加速演变的百年变局中，绽放其不可替代的投资魅力。 智者谋远，星海可期。置身人工智能革命与东西方力量重构的百年未有之大变局，工银国际研究将持续秉承“专业、洞见、责任”之理念，以高水准、差异化的深度研究穿透周期迷雾，致力护航全球投资者于科技革命与宏观变革的洪流中直挂云帆、破浪前行，在日益复杂的全球市场精准锚定“中国+”核心资产价值。我们愿与全球投资者智汇同行，于低增长时代慧眼捕捉高成长机遇，于高波动浪潮坚守长期主义信念，稳驭急风高浪，共拓投资新程！ Riding Out Cyclicality,Mapping Uncharted Opportunities Looking back at 2025, the global economy reached critical inflection points amida number of key events: the Federal Reserve restarted its interest rate cut cycle, globaltariffnegotiations took surprising turns,geopolitical tensions and tech rivalriesheightened, supply chain further restructured, and U.S. fiscal conditions continued totighten. In such uncharted waters, risk assets became more volatile, particularly withthe stretched valuation. Meanwhile, China’s economy navigated steadily throughheadwinds and registered steady growth, achieving the high-quality developmenttarget under the “14th Five-Year Plan”. Hong Kong capital market staged a robustresurgence in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index outperformed other major indices in theworld. Furthermore, its IPO fundraising reclaimed world’s number one position andinternational bond issuance volumes led Asia. All these reflect Hong Kong’s vitality asan international financial centre. As we look toward 2026, the global economy presents both near-term resilienceandmedium-to-long-term structural risks,profoundly recalibrating worldwideinvestment flows. The blueprint of the “15th Five-Year Plan” will further unleashChina’s economic potential through industrial upgrade, technological innovation, anddomestic demand stimulus. This convergence will increasingly spotlight China’sstrategic advantage in value investing. Fueled by the synergy of internal and externalforces, Hong Kong’s dual capacity as a “super-connector” and “super value-adder”growsever more pivotal.With deepening capital market reforms,continuousexpansion of capital market interconnection programs, and reinforced status as thepremier offshore Renminbi hub, Hong Kong is poised to become the gateway ofchoice for global capital allocation into Chinese assets. Amid the rapid transformationsunseen in a century, it will shine as an unparalleled investment destination. At the crossroad of an AI revolution and a century-defining reconfiguration ofEast-West dynamics, ICBC International Research commits to our core values of“Professionalism,Insight,Responsibility.”Through high-caliber,differentiatedresearch,we cut through cyclical uncertainties to guide global investors amidtechnological disruption and macroeconomic transformation—empowering them to setsail through headwinds and anchor value in “China+” core assets in the increasinglycomplex global market. In the current low-growth era, we invite investors worldwideto join our pursuit of high-growth opportunities. Together, we shall navigate choppywaters and pioneer new investment frontiers. || 目录 || || Contents || Preface....................................................................... 2Team Introduction................................................. 4Global Economic..................................................73China Economic ...................................................78Hong Kong Economic........................................81Major Asset Classes ............................................85Equity Strategy .....................................................88Bond Market..........................................................91Internet & Media Sector ...................................95Healthcare Sector ............................................. 100Consumer Sector .............................................. 106Auto & Auto-parts Sector ............................. 112Renewable Power Sector ............................... 117Oil and Gas Sector ........................................... 121Metals and Mining Sector ............................. 125Property Sector ................................................. 130Securities Sector ............................................... 135Insurance Sector ............................................... 140Important Disclosures..................................... 145 序言 .........................................................................1团队介绍 .....................................................................4全球经济 ...........