半导体：英伟达：第三季度业绩稳健；第四季度指引应能缓解人工智能泡沫担忧

Nvidia: Solid 3Q results;4Q guidance shouldalleviateAI bubble concerns Nvidia (NVDA US, NR)deliveredanother beat-and-raise quarter, with revenuesurging to US$57bn, up62%/22% YoY/QoQ, exceeding Bloomberg consensus/guidanceby 3%/6%.The US$10bn sequential revenue increase significantlyoutpaced the typical historical quarterly run-rate of US$4-5bn. Non-GAAP grossmargin stood at 73.6%,slightly below consensus but above guidance. The 1.0pptsequential improvement was attributed to a favorable DC mix, improved cycle times,and cost structure optimization. Mgmt. provided strong 4Q guidance, projecting China Semiconductors Sector Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Notably,Nvidiaachievedthese resultsagainsta challenging backdrop of 1)minimalcontribution from China due to exportcontrols, 2) persistentmarketdebatesaroundan “AI bubble,” and 3) tightening supply chain constraints across power, memory,and datacenter infrastructure.We believe Nvidia's strongexecutionand guidancehavesignificantly alleviatedfears of an AI bubble.We maintain aconstructive outlook on thebroaderAI industry and expect the AI supply chain to continue 1.Semiconductors-Analog sector–PMIC recovery underway; RF intransition (link)2.Semiconductors-PCB/CCLsector–AI-drivenupcycle:structuralgrowth with divergingdynamics (link)3.Semiconductors-CIS sector–Sustainedgrowthfueledbyautomotiveandemergingapplications (link)4.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: 1H25AIdemandcheck;Computedemand continues to grow (link)5.Semiconductors-Solid 2Q resultsforBroadcom;eyesonthedevelopment of AI inference (link)6.Semiconductors-Nvidia’s 1Q beatand solid 2Q guidance confirm AIdemand remains resilient (link)7.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: China’shyperscalers accelerate AI infra.buildout amid strengthening clouddemand (link) Data Center segmentmomentumremained robust, with revenue growingto US$51bn (up 66% YoY/25% QoQ).Within this segment, Compute revenue(84% of DC sales) reached US$43bn,fuelledby the ramp of GB300, whichhasovertakenGB200 sales. The Blackwell platform dominated, accounting forapproximately 95% of Compute sales. Hopperplatformcontributed US$2bn,whileH20 sales were minimal at US$50mn,as sizeable orders failed tomaterializeamid the geopolitical uncertainties. Networking revenue also saw Revenue visibility clarification.On the earnings call,mgmt.providedexceptional revenue visibility, citing at least US$500bn for the Blackwell andRubin platforms through calendar years 2025 and 2026. This figure notablyexcludes recent demand from key clients like KSA(anAIfactory order for 400– Rubin on track; trillion dollar TAM:The Rubin platform remains onschedulefor its ramp in 2H26. Lookingfurther ahead, managementenvisionsthe global AIinfrastructure build-out to reach US$3-4tnby 2030, with Nvidiawell-positioned to -Depreciationfears:Management highlighted that the Blackwell, Hopper,andAmpere architectures are all operating at full utilization.This -Inventory build: While inventory rose 128% YoY and 32% QoQ, we viewthisbuild-up as a strategic response to explosive demand and firmcommitments from hyperscalers, enterprises, and sovereign entities. Thisunderpinsthe over US$500bn revenue visibility for Blackwell and Rubin Source:Company data, CMBIGMNote: fiscal year ends in January Source:Company data, CMBIGM Breaking down the datacenter revenue in 3QFY26,84% was compute(US$43bn, up55.5% YoY and 27.1%QoQ), while16% was networking(US$8.2bn, up 162.7% YoY and13.3% QoQ).Based on management guidance,Nvidia’snon-GAAP GPM isexpected to Source:Company data,CMBIGMNote:Non-GAAP GPM includes H20 charges/(releases), net, whichwereUS$4.5bn, (US$180mn), and insignificant, for the first, second, Source:Company data, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The researchanalyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respectto the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neitherthe analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issueof this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies cov